luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 25, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Devils at Kraken, Jan 25, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Devils 4–2, but the replays lean toward the Devils: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The biggest swing (P3, 12:56 left): Matty Beniers scored on a backhand shot from 14 feet, worth 28 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

New Jersey Devils 2
Seattle Kraken 4

January 25, 2026 · Climate Pledge Arena

Luck index +61 Kraken very lucky · −61 Devils

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Devils win 6, Kraken win 4.

  1. 1 NJD 4 SEA 0
  2. 2 NJD 4 SEA 1
  3. 3 NJD 4 SEA 1
  4. 4 NJD 2 SEA 0
  5. 5 NJD 5 SEA 4
  6. 6 NJD 5 SEA 4
  7. 7 NJD 1 SEA 2
  8. 8 NJD 1 SEA 2
  9. 9 NJD 1 SEA 3
  10. 10 NJD 1 SEA 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Devils win 61% of them, Kraken 39%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Devils by 3+28.2%
Devils by 211.8%
Devils by 121.0%
Kraken by 121.9%
Kraken by 28.1%
Kraken by 3+8.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 2, without the luck Kraken by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Devils4723.17−1.17
Kraken2631.89+1.11

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:09 High sticking on the Kraken (Shane Wright): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P1 9:34 Instigator on the Devils (Dawson Mercer): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P1 4:32 High sticking on the Kraken (Jamie Oleksiak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P1 4:05 Interference on the Devils (Dougie Hamilton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P1 1:04 High sticking on the Devils (Paul Cotter): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 8:30 Holding on the Kraken (Jacob Melanson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NJD
P3 18:20 Hooking on the Devils (Ondrej Palat): 2 minutes on the power play +6% SEA
P3 12:12 Slashing on the Kraken (Brandon Montour): 2 minutes on the power play +2% NJD

When it happened

Kraken’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kraken were ahead in it, below while the Devils were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:49 Dougie Hamilton scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% NJD –
2 P2 12:23 Ryker Evans scored on a wrist shot from 58 feetShooting · 1% chance +21% SEA –
3 P2 7:17 Nico Hischier’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 49% chance +11% SEA –
4 P2 7:15 Jesper Bratt hit the left post with a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 32% chanceDawson Mercer’s poke shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +13% SEA –
5 P3 18:20 Hooking on the Devils (Ondrej Palat): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% SEA –
6 P3 12:56 Matty Beniers scored on a backhand shot from 14 feetShooting · 6% chance +28% SEA –
7 P3 12:38 Berkly Catton scored on a wrist shot from 2 feetShooting · 39% chance +8% SEA –
8 P3 11:46 Jack Hughes scored on a wrist shot from 41 feetShooting · 3% chance +13% NJD –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Devils 38% · Kraken 62%

Final margin
Kraken by 2
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Devils 61% · Kraken 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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