luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 23, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Avalanche, Jan 23, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Avalanche 7–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flyers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 45 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (P3, 19:04 left): Owen Tippett scored on a wrist shot from 26 feet, worth 24 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 7
Colorado Avalanche 3

January 23, 2026 · Ball Arena

Luck index +51 Flyers lucky · −51 Avalanche

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 5, Avalanche win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 5 COL 1
  2. 2 PHI 6 COL 3
  3. 3 PHI 3 COL 1
  4. 4 PHI 3 COL 2
  5. 5 PHI 3 COL 2
  6. 6 PHI 3 COL 4
  7. 7 PHI 3 COL 4
  8. 8 PHI 0 COL 2
  9. 9 PHI 0 COL 3
  10. 10 PHI 2 COL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.7 replays ended

Flyers win 49% of them, Avalanche 51%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+20.2%
Flyers by 29.2%
Flyers by 119.7%
Avalanche by 119.3%
Avalanche by 29.5%
Avalanche by 3+22.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 4, without the luck Flyers by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers3163.00+3.00
Avalanche5033.25−0.25

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:15 Hooking on the Flyers (Travis Konecny): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P1 15:01 Interference on the Flyers (Noah Cates): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P1 2:19 Interference on the Avalanche (Nathan MacKinnon): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 17:58 High sticking on the Avalanche (Artturi Lehkonen): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P3 15:43 Tripping on the Flyers (Emil Andrae): 2 minutes on the power play +3% COL
P3 11:23 Slashing on the Flyers (Denver Barkey): 2 minutes on the power play +2% COL

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 4:58 Owen Tippett scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 8% chance +17% PHI –
2 P1 1:03 Denver Barkey scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% PHI –
3 P2 12:43 Parker Kelly scored on a backhand shot from 12 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% COL –
4 P2 9:31 Victor Olofsson scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 4% chance +21% COL –
5 P2 8:59 Bobby Brink scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 15% chance +19% PHI –
6 P2 7:48 Cale Makar scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 7% chance +21% COL –
7 P3 19:04 Owen Tippett scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 7% chance +24% PHI –
8 P3 18:00 Matvei Michkov scored on a tip from 14 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 71% · Avalanche 29%

Final margin
Flyers by 4
Luck in goals
2.9 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 49% · Avalanche 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 16 2025-26 games · Flyers · Avalanche

More from week 16, 2025-26

Every game of week 16, 2025-26