luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 19, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Islanders at Canucks, Jan 19, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Canucks 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Islanders win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 9 points of win probability to the Islanders.

The biggest swing (P2, 4:02 left): Ryan Pulock scored on a snap shot from 34 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Islanders.

Final

New York Islanders 4
Vancouver Canucks 3

January 19, 2026 · Rogers Arena

Luck index +43 Islanders lucky · −43 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Islanders win 6, Canucks win 4.

  1. 1 NYI 6 VAN 1
  2. 2 NYI 5 VAN 2
  3. 3 NYI 5 VAN 2
  4. 4 NYI 3 VAN 1
  5. 5 NYI 4 VAN 3
  6. 6 NYI 1 VAN 0
  7. 7 NYI 4 VAN 5
  8. 8 NYI 1 VAN 2
  9. 9 NYI 1 VAN 3
  10. 10 NYI 2 VAN 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Islanders win 57% of them, Canucks 43%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Islanders by 3+26.5%
Islanders by 210.3%
Islanders by 120.6%
Canucks by 119.8%
Canucks by 28.2%
Canucks by 3+14.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Islanders by 1, without the luck Islanders by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Islanders4743.48+0.52
Canucks4432.98+0.02

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 2:19 A Canucks goal came off the board on review (off side) +16% NYI
P2 10:09 Slashing on the Islanders (Calum Ritchie): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 6:50 Tripping on the Canucks (Max Sasson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P3 18:57 Tripping on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYI
P3 18:36 Cross checking on the Canucks (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYI
P3 12:52 Tripping on the Islanders (Ryan Pulock): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Islanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:11 Max Sasson scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 19% chance +13% VAN –
2 P1 9:49 Anthony Duclair scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% NYI –
3 P1 5:12 Evander Kane scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 10% chance +16% VAN –
4 P1 2:19 A Canucks goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +16% NYI –
5 P2 5:53 Anthony Duclair’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 13% chanceAnthony Duclair’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +9% VAN –
6 P2 5:26 Anthony Duclair scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 19% chance +18% NYI –
7 P2 4:02 Ryan Pulock scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 10% chance +22% NYI –
8 P3 9:45 Tony DeAngelo scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 14% chance +12% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Islanders 70% · Canucks 30%

Final margin
Islanders by 1
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Islanders by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Islanders 57% · Canucks 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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