2025-26 regular season · January 21, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Penguins at Flames, Jan 21, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Penguins beat the Flames 4–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 12:11 left): Evgeni Malkin scored on a tip from 22 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Penguins.
Final
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 4 |
|---|---|
 Calgary Flames | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Penguins lucky · −39 Flames
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Penguins win 6, Flames win 4.
- 1 PIT 5 CGY 1
- 2 PIT 3 CGY 0
- 3 PIT 5 CGY 2
- 4 PIT 3 CGY 1
- 5 PIT 4 CGY 3
- 6 PIT 1 CGY 0
- 7 PIT 4 CGY 5
- 8 PIT 1 CGY 2
- 9 PIT 0 CGY 2
- 10 PIT 4 CGY 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Penguins win 61% of them, Flames 39%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Penguins by 3+ | 27.3% |
| Penguins by 2 | 11.9% |
| Penguins by 1 | 22.0% |
| Flames by 1 | 22.6% |
| Flames by 2 | 7.4% |
| Flames by 3+ | 8.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Penguins | 42 | 4 | 2.80 | +1.20 |
 Flames | 40 | 1 | 1.95 | −0.95 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:31 | Hooking on the Flames (Ryan Lomberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P3 18:56 | Tripping on the Penguins (Tommy Novak): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CGY |
When it happened
Flames’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 17:31 | Hooking on the Flames (Ryan Lomberg): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PIT | – |
| 2 | P1 12:11 | Evgeni Malkin scored on a tip from 22 feetShooting · 7% chance | +16% PIT | – |
| 3 | P2 9:32 | Ryan Lomberg missed the net with a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 18% chance | +4% PIT | – |
| 4 | P2 7:28 | Egor Chinakhov scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% PIT | – |
| 5 | P2 0:03 | Yegor Sharangovich scored on a tip from 22 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% CGY | – |
| 6 | P3 19:10 | Bryan Rust scored on a wraparound from 3 feetShooting · 25% chance | +12% PIT | – |
| 7 | P3 18:56 | Tripping on the Penguins (Tommy Novak): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% CGY | – |
| 8 | P3 10:41 | Tommy Novak scored on a backhand shot from 12 feetShooting · 8% chance | +4% PIT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Penguins 81% · Flames 19%
- Final margin
- Penguins by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for the Penguins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penguins by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Penguins 61% · Flames 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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