luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 24, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Oilers, Jan 24, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Oilers beat the Capitals 6–5, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Capitals had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 40 points of win probability to the Capitals.

The biggest swing (OT): the Oilers won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Oilers.

Final (OT)

Washington Capitals 5
Edmonton Oilers 6

January 24, 2026 · Rogers Place

Luck index +28 Oilers lucky · −28 Capitals

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 3, Oilers win 7.

  1. 1 WSH 8 EDM 5
  2. 2 WSH 7 EDM 6
  3. 3 WSH 3 EDM 2
  4. 4 WSH 3 EDM 4
  5. 5 WSH 2 EDM 4
  6. 6 WSH 1 EDM 4
  7. 7 WSH 1 EDM 4
  8. 8 WSH 0 EDM 4
  9. 9 WSH 1 EDM 6
  10. 10 WSH 2 EDM 9

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.7 replays ended

Capitals win 28% of them, Oilers 72%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+8.6%
Capitals by 24.9%
Capitals by 114.4%
Oilers by 114.7%
Oilers by 29.0%
Oilers by 3+48.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Oilers by 1, without the luck Oilers by 2.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals4653.01+1.99
Oilers5656.02−1.02

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:46 Interference on the Oilers (Vasily Podkolzin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P2 18:30 Interference on the Oilers (Leon Draisaitl): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P2 15:24 Tripping on the Capitals (Charlie Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P2 3:49 Too many men on the ice on the Capitals (WSH): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P2 1:03 Slashing on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P3 19:06 High sticking on the Capitals (Trevor van Riemsdyk): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P3 16:02 High sticking double minor on the Oilers (Curtis Lazar): 4 minutes on the power play +10% WSH
P3 16:00 Tripping on the Capitals (Tom Wilson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P3 12:14 Hooking on the Capitals (Matt Roy): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P3 6:57 Holding on the Oilers (Ty Emberson): 2 minutes on the power play +8% WSH

When it happened

Oilers’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Oilers were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 13:10 Justin Sourdif scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 4% chance +19% WSH –
2 P2 5:31 Anthony Beauvillier scored on a snap shot from 40 feetShooting · 2% chance +23% WSH –
3 P3 15:30 Evan Bouchard scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 9% chance +26% EDM –
4 P3 13:20 Dylan Strome scored on a wrist shot from 52 feetShooting · 2% chance +29% WSH –
5 P3 11:36 Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 8% chance +29% EDM –
6 P3 4:51 Connor McMichael scored on a bat shot from 6 feetShooting · 15% chance +33% WSH –
7 P3 0:32 Zach Hyman scored on a tip from 4 feetShooting · 23% chance +36% EDM –
8 OT The Oilers won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% EDM –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 13% · Oilers 87%

Final margin
Oilers by 1
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Oilers by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 28% · Oilers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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