luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 23, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Flames, Jan 23, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Flames 3–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Flames had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 44 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (P3, 12:25 left): Aliaksei Protas scored on a wrist shot from 5 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Capitals.

Final

Washington Capitals 3
Calgary Flames 1

January 23, 2026 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +24 Capitals about even · −24 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 8, Flames win 2.

  1. 1 WSH 8 CGY 1
  2. 2 WSH 6 CGY 1
  3. 3 WSH 5 CGY 1
  4. 4 WSH 5 CGY 1
  5. 5 WSH 5 CGY 2
  6. 6 WSH 4 CGY 1
  7. 7 WSH 3 CGY 2
  8. 8 WSH 4 CGY 3
  9. 9 WSH 4 CGY 5
  10. 10 WSH 6 CGY 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Capitals win 76% of them, Flames 24%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+53.8%
Capitals by 29.5%
Capitals by 113.0%
Flames by 114.8%
Flames by 24.7%
Flames by 3+4.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Capitals by 2, without the luck Capitals by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals5824.89−2.89
Flames4212.01−1.01

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:20 Tripping on the Capitals (John Carlson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 7:49 Hooking on the Flames (Joel Farabee): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
P3 17:21 High sticking on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WSH
P3 6:00 High sticking on the Flames (Yan Kuznetsov): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WSH
P3 0:09 Closing hand on puck on the Capitals (Hendrix Lapierre): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CGY

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:51 Morgan Frost scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% CGY –
2 P2 13:27 Hendrix Lapierre scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 7% chance +19% WSH –
3 P2 8:42 Alex Ovechkin’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 29% chance +6% CGY –
4 P2 6:53 Tom Wilson missed the net with a wrist shot from 3 feetShooting · 35% chance +8% CGY –
5 P3 17:21 High sticking on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% WSH –
6 P3 16:55 Jakob Chychrun’s cradle shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +6% CGY –
7 P3 15:22 Justin Sourdif’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +6% CGY –
8 P3 12:25 Aliaksei Protas scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 25% chance +23% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 92% · Flames 8%

Final margin
Capitals by 2
Luck in goals
0.9 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Capitals by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 76% · Flames 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 16 2025-26 games · Capitals · Flames

More from week 16, 2025-26

Every game of week 16, 2025-26