luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 19, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Wild at Maple Leafs, Jan 19, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Wild beat the Maple Leafs 6–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 13:07 left): Marcus Foligno scored on a tip from 24 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Wild.

Final

Minnesota Wild 6
Toronto Maple Leafs 3

January 19, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +37 Wild lucky · −37 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wild win 6, Maple Leafs win 4.

  1. 1 MIN 5 TOR 0
  2. 2 MIN 4 TOR 0
  3. 3 MIN 8 TOR 5
  4. 4 MIN 4 TOR 2
  5. 5 MIN 4 TOR 3
  6. 6 MIN 4 TOR 3
  7. 7 MIN 3 TOR 4
  8. 8 MIN 2 TOR 3
  9. 9 MIN 4 TOR 6
  10. 10 MIN 2 TOR 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.7 replays ended

Wild win 63% of them, Maple Leafs 37%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wild by 3+35.1%
Wild by 210.3%
Wild by 117.8%
Maple Leafs by 118.6%
Maple Leafs by 27.0%
Maple Leafs by 3+11.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Wild: the final margin was Wild by 3, without the luck Wild by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Wild5453.84+1.16
Maple Leafs4132.72+0.28

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:02 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P1 1:54 High sticking double minor on the Wild (Jared Spurgeon): 4 minutes on the power play +6% TOR
P2 15:24 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P2 9:42 Interference on the Wild (Quinn Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play +2% TOR
P2 2:37 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power play +1% MIN
P3 11:23 Tripping on the Wild (Vladimir Tarasenko): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Wild were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:02 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MIN –
2 P1 15:15 Vladimir Tarasenko scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 18% chance +14% MIN –
3 P1 9:31 Ryan Hartman scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 24% chance +11% MIN –
4 P1 1:54 High sticking double minor on the Wild (Jared Spurgeon): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% TOR –
5 P1 1:36 John Tavares scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 16% chance +13% TOR –
6 P2 15:24 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MIN –
7 P2 13:07 Marcus Foligno scored on a tip from 24 feetShooting · 3% chance +16% MIN –
8 P2 11:36 Vladimir Tarasenko scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 8% chance +9% MIN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wild 91% · Maple Leafs 9%

Final margin
Wild by 3
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Wild
Luck-adjusted margin
Wild by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Wild 63% · Maple Leafs 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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