luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 23, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Rangers at Sharks, Jan 23, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Sharks beat the Rangers 3–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 16:52 left): Pavol Regenda scored on a backhand shot from 20 feet, worth 11 points of win probability to the Sharks.

Final

New York Rangers 1
San Jose Sharks 3

January 23, 2026 · SAP Center at San Jose

Luck index +25 Sharks lucky · −25 Rangers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rangers win 3, Sharks win 7.

  1. 1 NYR 7 SJS 4
  2. 2 NYR 3 SJS 2
  3. 3 NYR 3 SJS 2
  4. 4 NYR 3 SJS 4
  5. 5 NYR 3 SJS 5
  6. 6 NYR 1 SJS 4
  7. 7 NYR 3 SJS 6
  8. 8 NYR 1 SJS 5
  9. 9 NYR 0 SJS 5
  10. 10 NYR 2 SJS 9

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Rangers win 25% of them, Sharks 75%. The line is what actually happened: Sharks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rangers by 3+6.3%
Rangers by 25.4%
Rangers by 113.7%
Sharks by 115.0%
Sharks by 29.4%
Sharks by 3+50.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Sharks: the final margin was Sharks by 2, without the luck Sharks by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Rangers4713.03−2.03
Sharks5034.77−1.77

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:31 Tripping on the Rangers (Mika Zibanejad): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P1 18:37 Delaying game puck over glass on the Rangers (Matthew Robertson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SJS
P1 15:34 Interference on the Sharks (Collin Graf): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYR
P1 5:24 High sticking on the Rangers (Taylor Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SJS
P1 1:36 Holding on the Sharks (Mario Ferraro): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYR
P2 12:22 Roughing on the Rangers (Carson Soucy): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SJS
P2 5:52 Holding on the Rangers (Will Borgen): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SJS
P3 11:27 Elbowing on the Rangers (Gabe Perreault): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SJS
P3 6:05 Hooking on the Rangers (Will Borgen): 2 minutes on the power play +1% SJS

When it happened

Sharks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sharks were ahead in it, below while the Rangers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:31 Tripping on the Rangers (Mika Zibanejad): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% SJS –
2 P1 18:51 Macklin Celebrini scored on a wrist shot from 2 feetShooting · 49% chance +8% SJS –
3 P1 18:37 Delaying game puck over glass on the Rangers (Matthew Robertson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% SJS –
4 P1 17:55 Tyler Toffoli’s backhand shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 33% chance +4% NYR –
5 P1 16:52 Pavol Regenda scored on a backhand shot from 20 feetShooting · 15% chance +11% SJS –
6 P1 12:23 Macklin Celebrini scored on a slap shot from 31 feetShooting · 12% chance +8% SJS –
7 P1 7:10 Sam Carrick scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 15% chance +7% NYR –
8 P2 10:42 Pavol Regenda’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 30% chancePavol Regenda missed the net with a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 25% chance +4% NYR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rangers 15% · Sharks 85%

Final margin
Sharks by 2
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Sharks
Luck-adjusted margin
Sharks by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Rangers 25% · Sharks 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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