2025-26 regular season · January 31, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Jets at Panthers, Jan 31, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Panthers 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 18 points of win probability to the Jets.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 11:26 left): Cole Perfetti scored on a wrist shot from 6 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Jets. The biggest single swing (P3, 4:14 left): Mark Scheifele scored on a wrist shot from 14 feet.
Final
 Winnipeg Jets | 2 |
|---|---|
 Florida Panthers | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Jets lucky · −46 Panthers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 5, Panthers win 5.
- 1 WPG 4 FLA 0
- 2 WPG 5 FLA 2
- 3 WPG 2 FLA 0
- 4 WPG 4 FLA 3
- 5 WPG 2 FLA 1
- 6 WPG 1 FLA 2
- 7 WPG 2 FLA 3
- 8 WPG 4 FLA 6
- 9 WPG 4 FLA 7
- 10 WPG 1 FLA 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Jets win 54% of them, Panthers 46%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 3+ | 18.0% |
| Jets by 2 | 11.5% |
| Jets by 1 | 24.1% |
| Panthers by 1 | 24.8% |
| Panthers by 2 | 9.7% |
| Panthers by 3+ | 12.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jets | 27 | 2 | 2.12 | −0.12 |
 Panthers | 41 | 1 | 1.84 | −0.84 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 13:36 | Roughing removing opponents helmet on the Jets (Cole Koepke): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P1 12:39 | Slashing on the Panthers (Sam Bennett): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P1 10:28 | Too many men on the ice on the Panthers (FLA): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P1 7:25 | Cross checking on the Jets (Logan Stanley): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P1 4:39 | Hooking on the Panthers (Sandis Vilmanis): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 1:09 | Tripping on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% WPG |
| P3 3:00 | Slashing on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% WPG |
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 13:29 | Matthew Tkachuk’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 29% chance | +5% WPG | – |
| 2 | P1 5:20 | Eetu Luostarinen scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 6% chance | +16% FLA | – |
| 3 | P1 4:34 | Cole Perfetti’s slap shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance | +4% FLA | – |
| 4 | P2 1:09 | Tripping on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% WPG | – |
| 5 | P3 11:26 | The game turned hereCole Perfetti scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 17% chance | +25% WPG | – |
| 6 | P3 9:19 | Dylan DeMelo’s snap shot from 43 feet was savedShooting · 3% chanceKyle Connor missed the net with a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 12% chance | +5% FLA | – |
| 7 | P3 4:14 | Mark Scheifele scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 12% chance | +35% WPG | – |
| 8 | P3 3:00 | Slashing on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% WPG | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 55% · Panthers 45%
- Final margin
- Jets by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 54% · Panthers 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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