luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 31, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Canucks, Jan 31, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Maple Leafs beat the Canucks 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Canucks had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 35 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Maple Leafs won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

Final (SO)

Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Vancouver Canucks 2

January 31, 2026 · Rogers Arena

Luck index +27 Maple Leafs lucky · −27 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 7, Canucks win 3.

  1. 1 TOR 8 VAN 2
  2. 2 TOR 4 VAN 0
  3. 3 TOR 5 VAN 2
  4. 4 TOR 3 VAN 0
  5. 5 TOR 2 VAN 0
  6. 6 TOR 2 VAN 1
  7. 7 TOR 3 VAN 2
  8. 8 TOR 5 VAN 6
  9. 9 TOR 2 VAN 3
  10. 10 TOR 3 VAN 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 73% of them, Canucks 27%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+42.9%
Maple Leafs by 211.3%
Maple Leafs by 118.9%
Canucks by 116.9%
Canucks by 25.9%
Canucks by 3+4.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Maple Leafs by 1, without the luck Maple Leafs by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs5923.65−1.65
Canucks3721.61+0.39

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

No power-play penalties or overturned goals in this game’s play-by-play.

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 18:05 Jonathan Lekkerimäki scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 10% chance +17% VAN –
2 P2 6:26 Nicolas Roy scored on a slap shot from 30 feetShooting · 9% chance +20% TOR –
3 P2 5:15 Tom Willander scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 11% chance +20% VAN –
4 P2 3:40 Matthew Knies’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance +5% VAN –
5 P3 17:28 Max Domi scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 6% chance +25% TOR –
6 P3 17:07 Matias Maccelli’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +6% VAN –
7 P3 11:44 Max Domi missed the net with a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 16% chance +5% VAN –
8 SO The game turned hereThe Maple Leafs won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% TOR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 82% · Canucks 18%

Final margin
Maple Leafs by 1
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 73% · Canucks 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 17 2025-26 games · Maple Leafs · Canucks

More from week 17, 2025-26

Every game of week 17, 2025-26