2025-26 regular season · February 28, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Flames at Kings, Feb 28, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kings beat the Flames 2–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 48 points of win probability to the Kings.
The biggest swing (P2, 4:24 left): Alex Laferriere scored on a wrist shot from 9 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Kings.
Final
 Calgary Flames | 0 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Kings | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Kings lucky · −46 Flames
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Flames win 5, Kings win 5.
- 1 CGY 7 LAK 3
- 2 CGY 3 LAK 0
- 3 CGY 4 LAK 2
- 4 CGY 5 LAK 4
- 5 CGY 8 LAK 7
- 6 CGY 2 LAK 3
- 7 CGY 1 LAK 2
- 8 CGY 1 LAK 3
- 9 CGY 3 LAK 6
- 10 CGY 0 LAK 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Flames win 46% of them, Kings 54%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Flames by 3+ | 15.7% |
| Flames by 2 | 9.4% |
| Flames by 1 | 20.7% |
| Kings by 1 | 21.6% |
| Kings by 2 | 10.9% |
| Kings by 3+ | 21.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flames | 46 | 0 | 2.77 | −2.77 |
 Kings | 54 | 1 | 2.98 | −1.98 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
No power-play penalties or overturned goals in this game’s play-by-play.
When it happened
Kings’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:42 | Matvei Gridin hit the crossbar with a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 19% chance | +3% LAK | – |
| 2 | P2 13:41 | Matvei Gridin’s snap shot from 14 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +4% LAK | – |
| 3 | P2 4:24 | Alex Laferriere scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 8% chance | +21% LAK | – |
| 4 | P2 0:58 | Nazem Kadri’s between-the-legs shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 33% chance | +8% LAK | – |
| 5 | P2 0:30 | Adam Klapka’s wrist shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +4% LAK | – |
| 6 | P3 12:02 | Adam Klapka missed the net with a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 9% chance | +3% LAK | – |
| 7 | P3 2:03 | Joel Farabee’s deflected shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance | +6% LAK | – |
| 8 | P3 1:17 | Blake Coleman missed the net with a tip from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance | +4% LAK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Flames 28% · Kings 72%
- Final margin
- Kings by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Kings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kings by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Flames 46% · Kings 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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