2025-26 regular season · February 25, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Oilers at Ducks, Feb 25, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Oilers 6–5, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ducks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 69 points of win probability to the Ducks.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 17:05 left): Olen Zellweger scored on a snap shot from 58 feet, worth 27 points of win probability to the Ducks. The biggest single swing (P3, 1:14 left): Cutter Gauthier scored on a wrist shot from 7 feet.
Final
 Edmonton Oilers | 5 |
|---|---|
 Anaheim Ducks | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Ducks lucky · −57 Oilers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oilers win 6, Ducks win 4.
- 1 EDM 5 ANA 0
- 2 EDM 8 ANA 4
- 3 EDM 4 ANA 1
- 4 EDM 3 ANA 1
- 5 EDM 4 ANA 3
- 6 EDM 4 ANA 3
- 7 EDM 2 ANA 3
- 8 EDM 2 ANA 3
- 9 EDM 4 ANA 7
- 10 EDM 3 ANA 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Oilers win 57% of them, Ducks 43%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oilers by 3+ | 28.5% |
| Oilers by 2 | 10.3% |
| Oilers by 1 | 18.3% |
| Ducks by 1 | 18.8% |
| Ducks by 2 | 8.9% |
| Ducks by 3+ | 15.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oilers | 47 | 5 | 3.73 | +1.27 |
 Ducks | 42 | 6 | 3.00 | +3.00 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:46 | Tripping on the Oilers (Mattias Ekholm): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P1 7:09 | Hooking on the Oilers (Adam Henrique): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P1 0:18 | Hooking on the Ducks (Cutter Gauthier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P2 18:08 | Hooking on the Oilers (Jack Roslovic): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P2 5:28 | Slashing on the Oilers (Ty Emberson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% ANA |
| P3 16:04 | Tripping on the Ducks (Ian Moore): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% EDM |
| P3 0:23 | Tripping on the Oilers (Connor McDavid): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% ANA |
When it happened
Ducks’ chance of winning
As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 9:30 | Ian Moore scored on a slap shot from 37 feetShooting · 5% chance | +14% ANA | – |
| 2 | P2 16:59 | Alex Killorn scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 22% chance | +15% ANA | – |
| 3 | P2 1:15 | Zach Hyman scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 10% chance | +23% EDM | – |
| 4 | P2 0:40 | Evan Bouchard scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 7% chance | +15% EDM | – |
| 5 | P3 17:05 | The game turned hereOlen Zellweger scored on a snap shot from 58 feetShooting · 1% chance | +27% ANA | – |
| 6 | P3 14:07 | Matt Savoie scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 16% chance | +24% EDM | – |
| 7 | P3 13:21 | Beckett Sennecke scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 11% chance | +26% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 1:14 | Cutter Gauthier scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 7% chance | +41% ANA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oilers 62% · Ducks 38%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for the Ducks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Oilers 57% · Ducks 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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