luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 27, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Jets at Ducks, Feb 27, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Jets 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ducks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Ducks.

The biggest swing (OT): the Ducks won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final (OT)

Winnipeg Jets 4
Anaheim Ducks 5

February 27, 2026 · Honda Center

Luck index +51 Ducks lucky · −51 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 5, Ducks win 5.

  1. 1 WPG 6 ANA 2
  2. 2 WPG 9 ANA 6
  3. 3 WPG 4 ANA 2
  4. 4 WPG 5 ANA 4
  5. 5 WPG 5 ANA 4
  6. 6 WPG 6 ANA 7
  7. 7 WPG 5 ANA 6
  8. 8 WPG 2 ANA 4
  9. 9 WPG 3 ANA 6
  10. 10 WPG 1 ANA 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 51% of them, Ducks 49%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 3+23.1%
Jets by 28.8%
Jets by 118.6%
Ducks by 118.7%
Ducks by 29.2%
Ducks by 3+21.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Ducks by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Jets5044.23−0.23
Ducks5744.19−0.19

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:09 Holding on the Jets (Logan Stanley): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 5:51 Tripping on the Ducks (Olen Zellweger): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 18:22 Holding on the Ducks (Pavel Mintyukov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 16:30 Delaying game puck over glass on the Ducks (Olen Zellweger): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WPG
P3 14:24 Tripping on the Jets (Tanner Pearson): 2 minutes on the power play +2% ANA
P3 5:22 Hooking on the Ducks (Tim Washe): 2 minutes on the power play +9% WPG

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:36 Alex Iafallo scored on a snap shot from 40 feetShooting · 3% chance +15% WPG –
2 P2 17:35 Gabriel Vilardi scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 28% chance +11% WPG –
3 P2 0:41 Jacob Trouba scored on a slap shot from 64 feetShooting · 1% chance +16% ANA –
4 P3 18:33 Elias Salomonsson scored on a snap shot from 40 feetShooting · 4% chance +16% WPG –
5 P3 10:01 Pavel Mintyukov scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 15% chance +28% ANA –
6 P3 3:10 Ryan Poehling scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 12% chance +36% ANA –
7 P3 1:22 Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 16% chance +37% WPG –
8 OT The Ducks won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 50% · Ducks 50%

Final margin
Ducks by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Jets 51% · Ducks 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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