2025-26 regular season · February 25, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Avalanche at Mammoth, Feb 25, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Avalanche beat the Mammoth 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Avalanche win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 20 points of win probability to the Avalanche.
The biggest swing (P2, 16:34 left): Parker Kelly scored on a snap shot from 28 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Avalanche.
Final
 Colorado Avalanche | 4 |
|---|---|
 Utah Mammoth | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Avalanche lucky · −53 Mammoth
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Avalanche win 5, Mammoth win 5.
- 1 COL 6 UTA 2
- 2 COL 4 UTA 1
- 3 COL 5 UTA 3
- 4 COL 4 UTA 3
- 5 COL 3 UTA 2
- 6 COL 3 UTA 4
- 7 COL 1 UTA 2
- 8 COL 2 UTA 4
- 9 COL 4 UTA 7
- 10 COL 1 UTA 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Avalanche win 47% of them, Mammoth 53%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Avalanche by 3+ | 17.4% |
| Avalanche by 2 | 9.2% |
| Avalanche by 1 | 19.9% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 19.8% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 10.4% |
| Mammoth by 3+ | 23.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Avalanche | 39 | 4 | 2.82 | +1.18 |
 Mammoth | 47 | 2 | 3.61 | −1.61 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 11:23 | A Avalanche goal came off the board on review (goal interference) | +17% UTA |
| P1 1:06 | Tripping on the Avalanche (Devon Toews): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P2 9:37 | Holding on the Avalanche (Gabriel Landeskog): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
| P2 3:46 | Tripping on the Mammoth (Jack McBain): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% COL |
| P2 0:36 | Hooking on the Avalanche (Martin Necas): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
| P3 19:42 | Tripping on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
| P3 16:17 | Slashing on the Mammoth (Nick DeSimone): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% COL |
| P3 5:40 | Too many men on the ice on the Avalanche (COL): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% UTA |
| P3 4:45 | Tripping on the Mammoth (Nick Schmaltz): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% COL |
When it happened
Mammoth’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 11:23 | A Avalanche goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goals | +17% UTA | – |
| 2 | P2 16:34 | Parker Kelly scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 9% chance | +18% COL | – |
| 3 | P2 10:47 | Victor Olofsson scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 19% chance | +13% COL | – |
| 4 | P2 9:11 | Dylan Guenther scored on a slap shot from 43 feetShooting · 5% chance | +16% UTA | – |
| 5 | P2 7:40 | Brock Nelson scored on a slap shot from 28 feetShooting · 15% chance | +14% COL | – |
| 6 | P2 6:40 | Dylan Guenther scored on a slap shot from 25 feetShooting · 17% chance | +14% UTA | – |
| 7 | P2 3:46 | Tripping on the Mammoth (Jack McBain): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% COL | – |
| 8 | P2 2:43 | Martin Necas scored on a slap shot from 45 feetShooting · 5% chance | +16% COL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Avalanche 54% · Mammoth 46%
- Final margin
- Avalanche by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for the Avalanche
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mammoth by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Avalanche 47% · Mammoth 53% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 21, 2025-26
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