luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 27, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Wild at Mammoth, Feb 27, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Wild 5–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 6:37 left): Logan Cooley scored on a snap shot from 17 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final

Minnesota Wild 2
Utah Mammoth 5

February 27, 2026 · Delta Center

Luck index +34 Mammoth lucky · −34 Wild

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wild win 3, Mammoth win 7.

  1. 1 MIN 5 UTA 2
  2. 2 MIN 4 UTA 2
  3. 3 MIN 3 UTA 2
  4. 4 MIN 0 UTA 1
  5. 5 MIN 2 UTA 3
  6. 6 MIN 2 UTA 4
  7. 7 MIN 3 UTA 6
  8. 8 MIN 1 UTA 4
  9. 9 MIN 1 UTA 5
  10. 10 MIN 2 UTA 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Wild win 34% of them, Mammoth 66%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wild by 3+10.5%
Wild by 26.5%
Wild by 116.6%
Mammoth by 118.2%
Mammoth by 211.8%
Mammoth by 3+36.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Mammoth by 3, without the luck Mammoth by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Wild3722.75−0.75
Mammoth5154.07+0.93

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:52 Cross checking on the Wild (Marcus Foligno): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P1 8:22 Hooking on the Mammoth (Alexander Kerfoot): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P2 7:07 Tripping on the Mammoth (Kailer Yamamoto): 2 minutes on the power play +1% MIN
P2 2:54 High sticking on the Mammoth (Nick Schmaltz): 2 minutes on the power play +2% MIN
P2 0:29 Interference on the Wild (Zach Bogosian): 2 minutes on the power play +2% UTA
P3 16:10 Interference goalkeeper on the Wild (Marcus Foligno): 2 minutes on the power play +1% UTA
P3 0:00 Slashing on the Wild (Vinnie Hinostroza): 2 minutes on the power play 0% UTA

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Wild were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:52 Cross checking on the Wild (Marcus Foligno): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% UTA –
2 P1 12:42 Dylan Guenther’s snap shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +3% MIN –
3 P1 8:22 Hooking on the Mammoth (Alexander Kerfoot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MIN –
4 P1 6:37 Logan Cooley scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 13% chance +15% UTA –
5 P2 15:34 Clayton Keller scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 13% chance +13% UTA –
6 P2 12:11 Lawson Crouse scored on a backhand shot from 12 feetShooting · 8% chance +7% UTA –
7 P2 5:57 Kirill Kaprizov scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 19% chance +6% MIN –
8 P3 18:41 Barrett Hayton scored on a slap shot from 11 feetShooting · 22% chance +4% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wild 17% · Mammoth 83%

Final margin
Mammoth by 3
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Wild 34% · Mammoth 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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