luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 1, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Islanders, Mar 1, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Panthers 5–4, but the replays lean toward the Panthers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 66 points of win probability to the Islanders.

The biggest swing (P3, 1:58 left): Sam Reinhart scored on a snap shot from 49 feet, worth 41 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Florida Panthers 4
New York Islanders 5

March 1, 2026 · UBS Arena

Luck index +66 Islanders very lucky · −66 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 7, Islanders win 3.

  1. 1 FLA 6 NYI 1
  2. 2 FLA 5 NYI 1
  3. 3 FLA 6 NYI 3
  4. 4 FLA 3 NYI 0
  5. 5 FLA 3 NYI 1
  6. 6 FLA 3 NYI 2
  7. 7 FLA 4 NYI 3
  8. 8 FLA 2 NYI 3
  9. 9 FLA 0 NYI 1
  10. 10 FLA 3 NYI 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 66% of them, Islanders 34%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+35.3%
Panthers by 212.0%
Panthers by 118.8%
Islanders by 118.9%
Islanders by 26.7%
Islanders by 3+8.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Islanders: the final margin was Islanders by 1, without the luck Panthers by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers6043.60+0.40
Islanders3952.14+2.86

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 5:12 Hooking on the Islanders (Ryan Pulock): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 13:56 Holding on the Panthers (Donovan Sebrango): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P2 13:32 Interference on the Islanders (Matthew Schaefer): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P3 19:27 Slashing on the Islanders (Calum Ritchie): 2 minutes on the power play +6% FLA

When it happened

Islanders’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Islanders were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:16 Sandis Vilmanis scored on a backhand shot from 14 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% FLA –
2 P1 1:59 Matthew Schaefer scored on a slap shot from 44 feetShooting · 4% chance +15% NYI –
3 P2 12:32 Carson Soucy scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 12% chance +18% NYI –
4 P2 7:56 Sam Bennett scored on a backhand shot from 24 feetShooting · 4% chance +21% FLA –
5 P2 2:46 Bo Horvat scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 2% chance +24% NYI –
6 P3 9:31 Matthew Schaefer scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 10% chance +29% NYI –
7 P3 1:58 Sam Reinhart scored on a snap shot from 49 feetShooting · 4% chance +41% FLA –
8 P3 0:32 Anders Lee scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 16% chance +38% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 73% · Islanders 27%

Final margin
Islanders by 1
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Islanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 66% · Islanders 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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