luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 28, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Rangers, Feb 28, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Rangers beat the Penguins 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Rangers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Rangers.

The biggest swing (SO): the Rangers won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Rangers.

Final (SO)

Pittsburgh Penguins 2
New York Rangers 3

February 28, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

Luck index +48 Rangers lucky · −48 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 5, Rangers win 5.

  1. 1 PIT 5 NYR 2
  2. 2 PIT 3 NYR 0
  3. 3 PIT 3 NYR 1
  4. 4 PIT 3 NYR 2
  5. 5 PIT 1 NYR 0
  6. 6 PIT 5 NYR 6
  7. 7 PIT 3 NYR 4
  8. 8 PIT 1 NYR 3
  9. 9 PIT 0 NYR 3
  10. 10 PIT 0 NYR 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Penguins win 48% of them, Rangers 52%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+16.2%
Penguins by 29.5%
Penguins by 122.2%
Rangers by 122.3%
Rangers by 210.5%
Rangers by 3+19.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Rangers: the final margin was Rangers by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins4122.55−0.55
Rangers4222.58−0.58

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:32 Holding on the Rangers (Braden Schneider): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 17:24 Abuse of officials on the Rangers (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 17:00 A Penguins goal came off the board on review (goal interference) +15% NYR
P1 4:01 Slashing on the Penguins (Blake Lizotte): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P1 1:30 Holding on the Rangers (Vladislav Gavrikov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 10:51 Hooking on the Penguins (Rickard Rakell): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYR

When it happened

Rangers’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Rangers were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:43 Avery Hayes missed the net with a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 28% chance +5% NYR –
2 P1 17:52 Anthony Mantha scored on a tip from 19 feetShooting · 13% chance +14% PIT –
3 P1 17:00 A Penguins goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goals +15% NYR –
4 P2 18:01 Ryan Shea scored on a wrist shot from 59 feetShooting · 1% chance +16% PIT –
5 P2 10:00 Mika Zibanejad scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 21% chance +13% NYR –
6 P3 17:03 Taylor Raddysh scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance +25% NYR –
7 P3 15:23 Gabe Perreault missed the net with a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 7% chanceGabe Perreault hit the right post with a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 9% chance +4% PIT –
8 SO The Rangers won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% NYR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 50% · Rangers 50%

Final margin
Rangers by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Rangers
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 48% · Rangers 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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