luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 26, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Islanders at Canadiens, Feb 26, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Canadiens 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Islanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Islanders.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Islanders won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Islanders.

Final (OT)

New York Islanders 4
Montreal Canadiens 3

February 26, 2026 · Centre Bell

Luck index +54 Islanders lucky · −54 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Islanders win 5, Canadiens win 5.

  1. 1 NYI 6 MTL 2
  2. 2 NYI 5 MTL 2
  3. 3 NYI 3 MTL 1
  4. 4 NYI 5 MTL 4
  5. 5 NYI 2 MTL 1
  6. 6 NYI 1 MTL 2
  7. 7 NYI 1 MTL 2
  8. 8 NYI 0 MTL 2
  9. 9 NYI 1 MTL 4
  10. 10 NYI 1 MTL 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Islanders win 46% of them, Canadiens 54%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Islanders by 3+17.7%
Islanders by 28.4%
Islanders by 120.0%
Canadiens by 122.2%
Canadiens by 210.7%
Canadiens by 3+21.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Islanders: the final margin was Islanders by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Islanders4232.92+0.08
Canadiens3532.86+0.14

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:48 A Canadiens goal came off the board on review (off side) +16% NYI
P2 11:41 Hooking on the Islanders (Scott Mayfield): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 3:30 Interference on the Canadiens (Juraj Slafkovský): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P2 3:22 High sticking on the Canadiens (Mike Matheson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P3 19:42 Tripping on the Islanders (Simon Holmstrom): 2 minutes on the power play +6% MTL
P3 12:16 Tripping on the Islanders (Kyle MacLean): 2 minutes on the power play +7% MTL

When it happened

Canadiens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canadiens were ahead in it, below while the Islanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:48 A Canadiens goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +16% NYI –
2 P1 7:49 Noah Dobson scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% MTL –
3 P2 9:54 Noah Dobson scored on a slap shot from 58 feetShooting · 3% chance +14% MTL –
4 P2 2:04 Matthew Schaefer scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% NYI –
5 P2 1:09 Matthew Schaefer scored on a snap shot from 42 feetShooting · 4% chance +23% NYI –
6 P3 10:49 Cole Caufield scored on a snap shot from 3 feetShooting · 60% chance +12% MTL –
7 P3 1:41 Anders Lee scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance +38% NYI –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Islanders won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Islanders 49% · Canadiens 51%

Final margin
Islanders by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Islanders
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Islanders 46% · Canadiens 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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