luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 28, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Bruins at Flyers, Feb 28, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Bruins 3–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flyers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 34 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (P3, 16:19 left): Travis Konecny scored on a wrist shot from 5 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final

Boston Bruins 1
Philadelphia Flyers 3

February 28, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +52 Flyers lucky · −52 Bruins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bruins win 5, Flyers win 5.

  1. 1 BOS 6 PHI 3
  2. 2 BOS 5 PHI 2
  3. 3 BOS 3 PHI 1
  4. 4 BOS 3 PHI 2
  5. 5 BOS 4 PHI 3
  6. 6 BOS 3 PHI 4
  7. 7 BOS 1 PHI 2
  8. 8 BOS 0 PHI 2
  9. 9 BOS 2 PHI 5
  10. 10 BOS 2 PHI 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Bruins win 52% of them, Flyers 48%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bruins by 3+20.1%
Bruins by 210.0%
Bruins by 121.8%
Flyers by 123.8%
Flyers by 29.4%
Flyers by 3+14.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 2, without the luck Flyers by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Bruins4112.62−1.62
Flyers2822.32−0.32

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:52 Tripping on the Bruins (Nikita Zadorov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 8:49 Holding on the Bruins (Mason Lohrei): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 0:16 Tripping on the Flyers (Sean Couturier): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BOS
P2 8:30 Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Flyers (Nicolas Deslauriers): 2 minutes on the power play +5% BOS
P2 4:24 Tripping on the Flyers (Cam York): 2 minutes on the power play +5% BOS

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Bruins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 8:30 Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Flyers (Nicolas Deslauriers): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% BOS –
2 P2 5:43 Sean Kuraly’s snap shot from 18 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +4% PHI –
3 P2 4:24 Tripping on the Flyers (Cam York): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% BOS –
4 P2 4:17 Morgan Geekie’s snap shot from 17 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance +6% PHI –
5 P2 2:44 Hampus Lindholm’s snap shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +6% PHI –
6 P3 16:19 Travis Konecny scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 27% chance +20% PHI –
7 P3 8:05 Jamie Drysdale scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 9% chance +11% PHI –
8 P3 6:57 Charlie McAvoy scored on a deflected shot from 18 feetShooting · 8% chance +10% BOS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bruins 41% · Flyers 59%

Final margin
Flyers by 2
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Bruins 52% · Flyers 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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