luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 28, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Maple Leafs, Feb 28, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Senators beat the Maple Leafs 5–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 4:45 left): Drake Batherson scored on a wrist shot from 28 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Senators.

Final

Ottawa Senators 5
Toronto Maple Leafs 2

February 28, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +39 Senators lucky · −39 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 6, Maple Leafs win 4.

  1. 1 OTT 5 TOR 0
  2. 2 OTT 4 TOR 1
  3. 3 OTT 5 TOR 2
  4. 4 OTT 6 TOR 4
  5. 5 OTT 4 TOR 3
  6. 6 OTT 4 TOR 3
  7. 7 OTT 1 TOR 2
  8. 8 OTT 4 TOR 5
  9. 9 OTT 1 TOR 3
  10. 10 OTT 3 TOR 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Senators win 61% of them, Maple Leafs 39%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+31.6%
Senators by 210.9%
Senators by 118.6%
Maple Leafs by 119.6%
Maple Leafs by 27.1%
Maple Leafs by 3+12.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Senators: the final margin was Senators by 3, without the luck Senators by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators5953.52+1.48
Maple Leafs3722.52−0.52

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:10 Roughing on the Senators (Dylan Cozens): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 6:57 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 4:45 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power play +3% OTT
P3 9:33 Roughing on the Senators (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR
P3 3:16 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Morgan Rielly): 2 minutes on the power play 0% OTT

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:08 Morgan Rielly scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% TOR –
2 P1 9:01 Thomas Chabot scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% OTT –
3 P2 16:57 Dylan Cozens scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 12% chance +17% OTT –
4 P2 6:55 Drake Batherson scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% OTT –
5 P2 6:06 William Nylander’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance +5% OTT –
6 P2 6:04 William Nylander scored on a poke shot from 2 feetShooting · 40% chance +10% TOR –
7 P2 4:45 Drake Batherson scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 9% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +18% OTT –
8 P2 3:54 Dylan Cozens scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 8% chance +7% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 81% · Maple Leafs 19%

Final margin
Senators by 3
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Senators
Luck-adjusted margin
Senators by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Senators 61% · Maple Leafs 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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