luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 28, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sabres at Lightning, Feb 28, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Sabres beat the Lightning 6–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 14:35 left): Rasmus Dahlin scored on a wrist shot from 37 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Sabres.

Final

Buffalo Sabres 6
Tampa Bay Lightning 2

February 28, 2026 · Benchmark International Arena

Luck index +38 Sabres lucky · −38 Lightning

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sabres win 6, Lightning win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 6 TBL 0
  2. 2 BUF 9 TBL 5
  3. 3 BUF 4 TBL 1
  4. 4 BUF 4 TBL 1
  5. 5 BUF 7 TBL 6
  6. 6 BUF 6 TBL 5
  7. 7 BUF 3 TBL 4
  8. 8 BUF 3 TBL 4
  9. 9 BUF 3 TBL 5
  10. 10 BUF 3 TBL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Sabres win 62% of them, Lightning 38%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sabres by 3+35.6%
Sabres by 29.7%
Sabres by 117.0%
Lightning by 118.2%
Lightning by 26.7%
Lightning by 3+12.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 goals to the Sabres: the final margin was Sabres by 4, without the luck Sabres by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sabres5064.13+1.87
Lightning5123.21−1.21

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 9:16 Cross checking on the Sabres (Zach Benson): 2 minutes on the power play +2% TBL
P2 9:34 Roughing on the Lightning (Emil Lilleberg): 2 minutes on the power play 0% BUF
P2 7:50 Delaying game puck over glass on the Lightning (Jake Guentzel): 2 minutes on the power play 0% BUF
P3 18:32 Roughing on the Sabres (Alex Tuch): 2 minutes on the power play 0% TBL
P3 17:58 Abuse of officials on the Lightning (Jake Guentzel): 2 minutes on the power play 0% BUF
P3 13:37 Cross checking on the Lightning (Darren Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play 0% BUF
P3 7:12 Interference on the Lightning (Anthony Cirelli): 2 minutes on the power play 0% BUF
P3 2:48 Cross checking on the Sabres (Michael Kesselring): 2 minutes on the power play 0% TBL
P3 0:00 Roughing on the Lightning (Charle-Edouard D'Astous): 2 minutes on the power play 0% BUF

When it happened

Lightning’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Lightning were ahead in it, below while the Sabres were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:10 Jack Quinn’s wrist shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 10% chance +2% TBL –
2 P1 14:35 Rasmus Dahlin scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% BUF –
3 P1 13:45 Josh Norris scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 10% chance +13% BUF –
4 P1 11:42 Josh Norris scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +10% BUF –
5 P1 9:16 Cross checking on the Sabres (Zach Benson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +2% TBL –
6 P1 7:16 Anthony Cirelli’s wrist shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +1% BUF –
7 P1 4:54 Tage Thompson scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 14% chance +5% BUF –
8 P2 18:06 Zach Metsa scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 8% chance +2% BUF –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sabres 77% · Lightning 23%

Final margin
Sabres by 4
Luck in goals
2.3 for the Sabres
Luck-adjusted margin
Sabres by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Sabres 62% · Lightning 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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