luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 26, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Panthers, Feb 26, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Maple Leafs 5–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 16:42 left): Brad Marchand scored on a wrist shot from 9 feet, worth 13 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Florida Panthers 5

February 26, 2026 · Amerant Bank Arena

Luck index +38 Panthers lucky · −38 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 4, Panthers win 6.

  1. 1 TOR 7 FLA 4
  2. 2 TOR 6 FLA 3
  3. 3 TOR 2 FLA 1
  4. 4 TOR 4 FLA 3
  5. 5 TOR 1 FLA 2
  6. 6 TOR 2 FLA 3
  7. 7 TOR 1 FLA 3
  8. 8 TOR 0 FLA 3
  9. 9 TOR 2 FLA 6
  10. 10 TOR 2 FLA 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 38% of them, Panthers 62%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+12.2%
Maple Leafs by 27.1%
Maple Leafs by 119.2%
Panthers by 119.6%
Panthers by 211.1%
Panthers by 3+30.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 4, without the luck Panthers by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs4112.66−1.66
Panthers5033.37−0.37

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:23 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Nicolas Roy): 2 minutes on the power play +3% FLA
P1 4:17 Hooking on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P2 14:30 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play +1% FLA
P2 8:51 Slashing on the Panthers (Mackie Samoskevich): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR
P2 1:11 Roughing on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR
P3 9:59 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Matias Maccelli): 2 minutes on the power play +2% FLA

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:59 Evan Rodrigues’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +3% TOR –
2 P1 16:42 Brad Marchand scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 14% chance +13% FLA –
3 P1 16:23 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Nicolas Roy): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% FLA –
4 P1 14:47 Carter Verhaeghe scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 13% chance +11% FLA –
5 P1 4:17 Hooking on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% TOR –
6 P1 3:20 Evan Rodrigues scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 17% chance +7% FLA –
7 P3 19:13 John Tavares scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 17% chance +5% TOR –
8 P3 9:59 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Matias Maccelli): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +2% FLA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 7% · Panthers 93%

Final margin
Panthers by 4
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 38% · Panthers 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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