luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 25, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Lightning, Feb 25, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Maple Leafs 4–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 12:53 left): Brayden Point scored on a wrist shot from 9 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 4

February 25, 2026 · Benchmark International Arena

Luck index +28 Lightning lucky · −28 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 3, Lightning win 7.

  1. 1 TOR 5 TBL 2
  2. 2 TOR 6 TBL 4
  3. 3 TOR 4 TBL 3
  4. 4 TOR 3 TBL 4
  5. 5 TOR 3 TBL 5
  6. 6 TOR 4 TBL 6
  7. 7 TOR 2 TBL 5
  8. 8 TOR 3 TBL 7
  9. 9 TOR 0 TBL 5
  10. 10 TOR 1 TBL 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 28% of them, Lightning 72%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+8.2%
Maple Leafs by 25.8%
Maple Leafs by 114.4%
Lightning by 114.1%
Lightning by 210.1%
Lightning by 3+47.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Lightning: the final margin was Lightning by 2, without the luck Lightning by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs4824.05−2.05
Lightning5844.91−0.91

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:05 A Maple Leafs goal came off the board on review (off side) +16% TBL
P1 5:54 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P2 19:12 Interference on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 12:02 Roughing on the Maple Leafs (Oliver Ekman-Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P3 14:36 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Auston Matthews): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL
P3 10:17 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play 0% TBL
P3 5:06 Holding on the Lightning (Ryan McDonagh): 2 minutes on the power play 0% TOR

When it happened

Lightning’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Lightning were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:05 A Maple Leafs goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +16% TBL –
2 P1 2:59 William Nylander’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +5% TBL –
3 P2 19:12 Interference on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% TOR –
4 P2 17:50 Bobby McMann’s snap shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +5% TBL –
5 P2 17:49 Max Domi’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 33% chance +6% TBL –
6 P2 12:53 Brayden Point scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 7% chance +19% TBL –
7 P2 12:02 Gage Goncalves scored on a wrist shot from 3 feetShooting · 23% chanceRoughing on the Maple Leafs (Oliver Ekman-Larsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +14% TBL –
8 P3 17:01 Nikita Kucherov scored on a slap shot from 31 feetShooting · 6% chance +5% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 17% · Lightning 83%

Final margin
Lightning by 2
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Lightning
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 28% · Lightning 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 21 2025-26 games · Maple Leafs · Lightning

More from week 21, 2025-26

Every game of week 21, 2025-26