luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 5, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Mammoth at Flyers, Mar 5, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Flyers 3–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Mammoth win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

The biggest swing (P2, 18:22 left): Nick Schmaltz scored on a snap shot from 17 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final

Utah Mammoth 3
Philadelphia Flyers 0

March 5, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +47 Mammoth lucky · −47 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mammoth win 5, Flyers win 5.

  1. 1 UTA 4 PHI 0
  2. 2 UTA 3 PHI 0
  3. 3 UTA 4 PHI 2
  4. 4 UTA 3 PHI 2
  5. 5 UTA 2 PHI 1
  6. 6 UTA 1 PHI 2
  7. 7 UTA 1 PHI 2
  8. 8 UTA 0 PHI 2
  9. 9 UTA 0 PHI 2
  10. 10 UTA 3 PHI 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Mammoth win 53% of them, Flyers 47%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mammoth by 3+15.5%
Mammoth by 212.6%
Mammoth by 125.1%
Flyers by 125.5%
Flyers by 210.3%
Flyers by 3+11.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Mammoth by 3, without the luck Mammoth by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Mammoth3621.85+0.15
Flyers2601.77−1.77

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 5:27 Slashing on the Mammoth (John Marino): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 18:30 Holding the stick on the Flyers (Noah Cates): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P3 15:58 Holding on the Mammoth (Sean Durzi): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P3 13:22 High sticking on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play +2% PHI
P3 12:35 Hooking on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power play +2% UTA

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Mammoth were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 5:27 Slashing on the Mammoth (John Marino): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PHI –
2 P2 18:30 Holding the stick on the Flyers (Noah Cates): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% UTA –
3 P2 18:22 Nick Schmaltz scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% UTA –
4 P2 15:19 Noah Cates’s snap shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +3% UTA –
5 P2 11:57 Clayton Keller scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% UTA –
6 P3 15:58 Holding on the Mammoth (Sean Durzi): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% PHI –
7 P3 13:22 High sticking on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +2% PHI –
8 P3 11:47 Carl Grundstrom’s snap shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +4% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mammoth 96% · Flyers 4%

Final margin
Mammoth by 3
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Mammoth 53% · Flyers 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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