luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 7, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Rangers at Devils, Mar 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Devils beat the Rangers 6–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P3, 11:55 left): Nico Hischier scored on a wrist shot from 20 feet, worth 24 points of win probability to the Devils.

Final

New York Rangers 3
New Jersey Devils 6

March 7, 2026 · Prudential Center

Luck index +39 Devils lucky · −39 Rangers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rangers win 4, Devils win 6.

  1. 1 NYR 3 NJD 0
  2. 2 NYR 4 NJD 2
  3. 3 NYR 3 NJD 2
  4. 4 NYR 4 NJD 3
  5. 5 NYR 4 NJD 5
  6. 6 NYR 2 NJD 3
  7. 7 NYR 2 NJD 4
  8. 8 NYR 3 NJD 6
  9. 9 NYR 1 NJD 4
  10. 10 NYR 0 NJD 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Rangers win 39% of them, Devils 61%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rangers by 3+12.3%
Rangers by 28.0%
Rangers by 118.8%
Devils by 120.2%
Devils by 212.3%
Devils by 3+28.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 goals to the Devils: the final margin was Devils by 3, without the luck Devils by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Rangers3332.58+0.42
Devils5353.23+1.77

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:42 High sticking on the Devils (Nick Bjugstad): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYR
P1 1:54 Interference on the Rangers (Vladislav Gavrikov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P2 10:42 Interference on the Devils (Jack Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYR
P2 6:08 Slashing on the Rangers (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NJD
P3 17:39 Roughing on the Devils (Arseny Gritsyuk): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NYR
P3 12:41 Hooking on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power play +7% NJD
P3 9:03 Delaying game puck over glass on the Devils (Brenden Dillon): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYR

When it happened

Devils’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Devils were ahead in it, below while the Rangers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:54 Jesper Bratt scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 13% chance +13% NJD –
2 P1 13:34 Will Borgen scored on a wrist shot from 42 feetShooting · 3% chance +16% NYR –
3 P1 11:24 Vladislav Gavrikov scored on a slap shot from 48 feetShooting · 4% chance +16% NYR –
4 P1 0:13 Dawson Mercer scored on a tip from 15 feetShooting · 10% chance +17% NJD –
5 P2 10:37 Alexis Lafrenière’s tip from 7 feet was savedShooting · 15% chanceAlexis Lafrenière missed the net with a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 22% chance +8% NJD –
6 P2 4:08 Jack Hughes scored on a slap shot from 49 feetShooting · 5% chance +22% NJD –
7 P2 3:07 Will Cuylle scored on a slap shot from 19 feetShooting · 22% chance +18% NYR –
8 P3 11:55 Nico Hischier scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 19% chance +24% NJD –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rangers 13% · Devils 87%

Final margin
Devils by 3
Luck in goals
1.2 for the Devils
Luck-adjusted margin
Devils by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Rangers 39% · Devils 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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