luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 3, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Oilers, Mar 3, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Oilers beat the Senators 5–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Senators had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Senators.

The biggest swing (OT): the Oilers won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Oilers.

Final (OT)

Ottawa Senators 4
Edmonton Oilers 5

March 3, 2026 · Rogers Place

Luck index +36 Oilers lucky · −36 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 4, Oilers win 6.

  1. 1 OTT 4 EDM 1
  2. 2 OTT 2 EDM 0
  3. 3 OTT 5 EDM 4
  4. 4 OTT 3 EDM 2
  5. 5 OTT 1 EDM 2
  6. 6 OTT 3 EDM 4
  7. 7 OTT 1 EDM 3
  8. 8 OTT 0 EDM 3
  9. 9 OTT 3 EDM 6
  10. 10 OTT 2 EDM 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Senators win 36% of them, Oilers 64%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+9.2%
Senators by 27.2%
Senators by 119.5%
Oilers by 120.5%
Oilers by 212.0%
Oilers by 3+31.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Senators: the final margin was Oilers by 1, without the luck Oilers by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators3342.03+1.97
Oilers5543.76+0.24

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:21 High sticking on the Oilers (Evan Bouchard): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 12:00 Roughing on the Oilers (Vasily Podkolzin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 9:24 Holding on the Oilers (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 7:43 Hooking on the Senators (Tyler Kleven): 2 minutes on the power play +3% EDM
P3 19:22 Delaying game puck over glass on the Senators (Shane Pinto): 2 minutes on the power play +3% EDM
OT 4:05 Holding on the Senators (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play +12% EDM

When it happened

Oilers’ chance of winning

As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Oilers were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:26 Dylan Cozens scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 11% chance +15% OTT –
2 P1 13:26 Drake Batherson scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% OTT –
3 P1 3:12 Leon Draisaitl scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 4% chance +18% EDM –
4 P2 15:30 Drake Batherson scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance +18% OTT –
5 P2 14:49 Michael Amadio scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 13% chance +14% OTT –
6 P3 18:08 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% EDM –
7 P3 1:25 Zach Hyman scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 23% chance +34% EDM –
8 OT The Oilers won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% EDM –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 22% · Oilers 78%

Final margin
Oilers by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Senators
Luck-adjusted margin
Oilers by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Senators 36% · Oilers 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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