luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 7, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Lightning at Maple Leafs, Mar 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Maple Leafs 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lightning win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 30 points of win probability to the Lightning.

The biggest swing (P1, 7:30 left): Jake Guentzel scored on a backhand shot from 10 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Toronto Maple Leafs 2

March 7, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +45 Lightning lucky · −45 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lightning win 6, Maple Leafs win 4.

  1. 1 TBL 4 TOR 0
  2. 2 TBL 6 TOR 3
  3. 3 TBL 3 TOR 0
  4. 4 TBL 4 TOR 2
  5. 5 TBL 3 TOR 2
  6. 6 TBL 3 TOR 2
  7. 7 TBL 4 TOR 5
  8. 8 TBL 2 TOR 3
  9. 9 TBL 1 TOR 3
  10. 10 TBL 1 TOR 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Lightning win 55% of them, Maple Leafs 45%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lightning by 3+24.1%
Lightning by 211.1%
Lightning by 120.1%
Maple Leafs by 121.8%
Maple Leafs by 28.4%
Maple Leafs by 3+14.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Lightning: the final margin was Lightning by 3, without the luck Lightning by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Lightning4342.87+1.13
Maple Leafs3522.62−0.62

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:19 Tripping on the Lightning (Conor Geekie): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 5:29 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P1 2:11 Tripping on the Lightning (Darren Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play +2% TOR
P2 12:26 High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play +2% TBL
P2 8:27 Tripping on the Lightning (Scott Sabourin): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR
P2 5:38 Too many men on the ice on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL
P3 19:44 Holding on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Lightning were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:10 Matias Maccelli scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% TOR –
2 P1 14:24 Ryan McDonagh scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 2% chance +16% TBL –
3 P1 13:19 Tripping on the Lightning (Conor Geekie): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% TOR –
4 P1 7:30 Jake Guentzel scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +16% TBL –
5 P1 6:53 William Nylander’s wrist shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +3% TBL –
6 P1 6:12 Corey Perry scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% TBL –
7 P1 5:29 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% TBL –
8 P1 4:54 Oliver Bjorkstrand scored on a slap shot from 26 feetShooting · 11% chance +9% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lightning 82% · Maple Leafs 18%

Final margin
Lightning by 3
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Lightning
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Lightning 55% · Maple Leafs 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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