luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 12, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Predators at Canucks, Mar 12, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Canucks beat the Predators 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Predators had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Predators.

The biggest swing (SO): the Canucks won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Canucks.

Final (SO)

Nashville Predators 3
Vancouver Canucks 4

March 12, 2026 · Rogers Arena

Luck index +35 Canucks lucky · −35 Predators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Predators win 4, Canucks win 6.

  1. 1 NSH 3 VAN 0
  2. 2 NSH 3 VAN 1
  3. 3 NSH 2 VAN 1
  4. 4 NSH 3 VAN 2
  5. 5 NSH 3 VAN 4
  6. 6 NSH 6 VAN 7
  7. 7 NSH 0 VAN 2
  8. 8 NSH 1 VAN 4
  9. 9 NSH 1 VAN 4
  10. 10 NSH 1 VAN 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Predators win 35% of them, Canucks 65%. The line is what actually happened: Canucks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Predators by 3+8.6%
Predators by 27.4%
Predators by 119.4%
Canucks by 121.1%
Canucks by 213.0%
Canucks by 3+30.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Canucks by 1, without the luck Canucks by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Predators2831.79+1.21
Canucks4633.62−0.62

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 9:46 Roughing on the Canucks (Marco Rossi): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P2 9:32 Slashing on the Predators (Ryan O'Reilly): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 4:28 Hooking on the Canucks (Curtis Douglas): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NSH

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Predators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:20 Brock Boeser scored on a tip from 11 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% VAN –
2 P1 1:32 Tyson Jost scored on a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 26% chance +13% NSH –
3 P2 14:40 Tyson Jost scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 12% chance +18% NSH –
4 P2 5:54 Matthew Wood scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 2% chance +16% NSH –
5 P3 4:05 Marco Rossi scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 12% chance +8% VAN –
6 P3 1:47 Drew O'Connor’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance +10% NSH –
7 P3 1:01 Filip Hronek scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 10% chance +40% VAN –
8 SO The Canucks won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% VAN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Predators 20% · Canucks 80%

Final margin
Canucks by 1
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
Canucks by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Predators 35% · Canucks 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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