luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 10, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kings at Bruins, Mar 10, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bruins beat the Kings 2–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Kings had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Kings.

The biggest swing (OT): the Bruins won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Bruins.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Kings 1
Boston Bruins 2

March 10, 2026 · TD Garden

Luck index +39 Bruins lucky · −39 Kings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kings win 4, Bruins win 6.

  1. 1 LAK 4 BOS 1
  2. 2 LAK 4 BOS 2
  3. 3 LAK 4 BOS 3
  4. 4 LAK 3 BOS 2
  5. 5 LAK 4 BOS 5
  6. 6 LAK 3 BOS 4
  7. 7 LAK 0 BOS 2
  8. 8 LAK 0 BOS 3
  9. 9 LAK 1 BOS 4
  10. 10 LAK 1 BOS 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kings win 39% of them, Bruins 61%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kings by 3+9.4%
Kings by 27.7%
Kings by 121.8%
Bruins by 122.8%
Bruins by 211.6%
Bruins by 3+26.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Kings: the final margin was Bruins by 1, without the luck Bruins by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kings4712.11−1.11
Bruins4212.81−1.81

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 9:41 Interference on the Kings (Cody Ceci): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BOS
P1 8:57 Tripping on the Bruins (Charlie McAvoy): 2 minutes on the power play +4% LAK
P2 11:52 Interference on the Kings (Adrian Kempe): 2 minutes on the power play +5% BOS
P2 10:17 Hooking on the Bruins (Hampus Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power play +5% LAK
P2 5:17 Interference on the Kings (Brandt Clarke): 2 minutes on the power play +5% BOS
P3 4:17 Holding the stick on the Kings (Quinton Byfield): 2 minutes on the power play +9% BOS

When it happened

Bruins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Bruins were ahead in it, below while the Kings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:47 Michael Eyssimont tip in, 14 ft: above crossbar (65% chance)Empty-net goals +10% LAK –
2 P2 5:17 Interference on the Kings (Brandt Clarke): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% BOS –
3 P3 11:38 Mason Lohrei scored on a snap shot from 40 feetShooting · 5% chance +29% BOS –
4 P3 6:00 Drew Doughty scored on a slap shot from 67 feetShooting · 1% chance +36% LAK –
5 P3 4:17 Holding the stick on the Kings (Quinton Byfield): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% BOS –
6 P3 3:57 Charlie McAvoy’s snap shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +7% LAK –
7 P3 2:19 Fraser Minten’s snap shot from 26 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +5% LAK –
8 OT The Bruins won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% BOS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kings 28% · Bruins 72%

Final margin
Bruins by 1
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Kings
Luck-adjusted margin
Bruins by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Kings 39% · Bruins 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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