luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 16, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Bruins at Devils, Mar 16, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Devils beat the Bruins 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Devils win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Devils.

The biggest swing (OT): the Devils won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Devils.

Final (OT)

Boston Bruins 3
New Jersey Devils 4

March 16, 2026 · Prudential Center

Luck index +44 Devils lucky · −44 Bruins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bruins win 4, Devils win 6.

  1. 1 BOS 6 NJD 3
  2. 2 BOS 3 NJD 1
  3. 3 BOS 3 NJD 2
  4. 4 BOS 4 NJD 3
  5. 5 BOS 3 NJD 4
  6. 6 BOS 5 NJD 6
  7. 7 BOS 1 NJD 2
  8. 8 BOS 2 NJD 4
  9. 9 BOS 2 NJD 5
  10. 10 BOS 2 NJD 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Bruins win 44% of them, Devils 56%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bruins by 3+11.7%
Bruins by 29.5%
Bruins by 123.2%
Devils by 124.0%
Devils by 210.8%
Devils by 3+20.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Devils: the final margin was Devils by 1, without the luck Devils by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Bruins3231.91+1.09
Devils4632.38+0.62

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 2:30 Tripping on the Bruins (David Pastrnak): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NJD
P3 9:15 Tripping on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power play +8% BOS
P3 7:38 Tripping on the Devils (Nick Bjugstad): 2 minutes on the power play +8% BOS
P3 4:31 Tripping on the Bruins (Jonathan Aspirot): 2 minutes on the power play +9% NJD
P3 3:18 Interference on the Devils (Dawson Mercer): 2 minutes on the power play +9% BOS

When it happened

Devils’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Devils were ahead in it, below while the Bruins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:58 David Pastrnak scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 19% chance +13% BOS –
2 P1 5:31 Pavel Zacha scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance +13% BOS –
3 P2 19:28 Connor Brown scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 18% chance +13% NJD –
4 P2 11:52 Jesper Bratt scored on a slap shot from 29 feetShooting · 7% chance +20% NJD –
5 P3 17:10 Paul Cotter scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 14% chance +23% NJD –
6 P3 15:28 David Pastrnak scored on a backhand shot from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance +25% BOS –
7 P3 3:18 Interference on the Devils (Dawson Mercer): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% BOS –
8 OT The Devils won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% NJD –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bruins 40% · Devils 60%

Final margin
Devils by 1
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Devils
Luck-adjusted margin
Devils by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Bruins 44% · Devils 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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