luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 16, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Avalanche, Mar 16, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Penguins beat the Avalanche 7–2, but the replays lean toward the Avalanche: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 42 points of win probability to the Penguins.

The biggest swing (P1, 15:52 left): Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 42 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Colorado Avalanche 2

March 16, 2026 · Ball Arena

Luck index +69 Penguins very lucky · −69 Avalanche

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 3, Avalanche win 7.

  1. 1 PIT 5 COL 2
  2. 2 PIT 3 COL 2
  3. 3 PIT 3 COL 2
  4. 4 PIT 6 COL 7
  5. 5 PIT 3 COL 4
  6. 6 PIT 1 COL 3
  7. 7 PIT 1 COL 4
  8. 8 PIT 1 COL 5
  9. 9 PIT 1 COL 5
  10. 10 PIT 1 COL 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Penguins win 31% of them, Avalanche 69%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+7.3%
Penguins by 26.4%
Penguins by 117.1%
Avalanche by 116.9%
Avalanche by 211.6%
Avalanche by 3+40.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 goals to the Penguins: the final margin was Penguins by 5, without the luck Avalanche by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins2872.03+4.97
Avalanche4623.92−1.92

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:12 Tripping on the Penguins (Evgeni Malkin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P1 14:27 Cross checking on the Penguins (Ville Koivunen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P1 11:21 Interference on the Avalanche (Jack Drury): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 16:30 Holding on the Penguins (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power play +3% COL
P2 8:49 Tripping on the Penguins (Arturs Silovs): 2 minutes on the power play +1% COL
P2 6:30 Hooking on the Avalanche (Nicolas Roy): 2 minutes on the power play +1% PIT
P2 4:20 Too many men on the ice on the Avalanche (COL): 2 minutes on the power play +1% PIT

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:59 Evgeni Malkin scored on a backhand shot from 23 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% PIT –
2 P1 15:52 Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 42 feetShooting · 4% chance +16% COL –
3 P1 15:37 Anthony Mantha scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 13% chance +14% PIT –
4 P1 13:48 Brock Nelson’s slap shot from 24 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance +4% PIT –
5 P1 7:00 Evgeni Malkin scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% PIT –
6 P1 6:17 Elmer Soderblom scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 19% chance +9% PIT –
7 P1 5:39 Brent Burns scored on a snap shot from 66 feetShooting · 1% chance +10% COL –
8 P2 9:24 Erik Karlsson scored on a wrist shot from 59 feetShooting · 1% chance +9% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 52% · Avalanche 48%

Final margin
Penguins by 5
Luck in goals
5.2 for the Penguins
Luck-adjusted margin
Avalanche by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 31% · Avalanche 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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