luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 22, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Golden Knights at Stars, Mar 22, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Golden Knights beat the Stars 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Stars had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 8 points of win probability to the Stars.

The biggest swing (P3, 3:38 left): Reilly Smith scored on a snap shot from 9 feet, worth 33 points of win probability to the Golden Knights.

Final

Vegas Golden Knights 3
Dallas Stars 2

March 22, 2026 · American Airlines Center

Luck index +29 Golden Knights lucky · −29 Stars

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Golden Knights win 7, Stars win 3.

  1. 1 VGK 7 DAL 1
  2. 2 VGK 6 DAL 2
  3. 3 VGK 3 DAL 0
  4. 4 VGK 4 DAL 1
  5. 5 VGK 3 DAL 1
  6. 6 VGK 5 DAL 4
  7. 7 VGK 4 DAL 3
  8. 8 VGK 2 DAL 3
  9. 9 VGK 2 DAL 3
  10. 10 VGK 0 DAL 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Golden Knights win 71% of them, Stars 29%. The line is what actually happened: Golden Knights by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Golden Knights by 3+42.0%
Golden Knights by 212.3%
Golden Knights by 117.0%
Stars by 117.2%
Stars by 24.6%
Stars by 3+6.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Stars: the final margin was Golden Knights by 1, without the luck Golden Knights by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Golden Knights4633.78−0.78
Stars2521.94+0.06

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 10:12 Tripping on the Golden Knights (Jeremy Lauzon): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P2 17:41 Delaying game puck over glass on the Stars (Miro Heiskanen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VGK
P2 12:20 Slashing on the Stars (Nils Lundkvist): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VGK
P2 8:19 High sticking double minor on the Golden Knights (Jack Eichel): 4 minutes on the power play +10% DAL
P2 4:08 Too many men on the ice on the Stars (DAL): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VGK
P2 0:14 High sticking on the Stars (Jamie Benn): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VGK

When it happened

Stars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Stars were ahead in it, below while the Golden Knights were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:59 Brayden McNabb scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% VGK –
2 P1 9:05 Wyatt Johnston scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 23% chance +13% DAL –
3 P1 3:12 Justin Hryckowian scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 16% chance +15% DAL –
4 P2 10:50 Ivan Barbashev scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 10% chance +19% VGK –
5 P2 8:19 High sticking double minor on the Golden Knights (Jack Eichel): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +10% DAL –
6 P3 18:43 Rasmus Andersson’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +7% DAL –
7 P3 18:24 Rasmus Andersson’s snap shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +6% DAL –
8 P3 3:38 Reilly Smith scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 20% chance +33% VGK –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Golden Knights 80% · Stars 20%

Final margin
Golden Knights by 1
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Stars
Luck-adjusted margin
Golden Knights by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Golden Knights 71% · Stars 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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