luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 20, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Hurricanes at Maple Leafs, Mar 20, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Maple Leafs 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Maple Leafs had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 19 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Hurricanes won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final (OT)

Carolina Hurricanes 4
Toronto Maple Leafs 3

March 20, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +30 Hurricanes lucky · −30 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Hurricanes win 7, Maple Leafs win 3.

  1. 1 CAR 7 TOR 1
  2. 2 CAR 4 TOR 0
  3. 3 CAR 4 TOR 1
  4. 4 CAR 3 TOR 0
  5. 5 CAR 4 TOR 2
  6. 6 CAR 6 TOR 5
  7. 7 CAR 5 TOR 4
  8. 8 CAR 2 TOR 3
  9. 9 CAR 4 TOR 5
  10. 10 CAR 1 TOR 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Hurricanes win 70% of them, Maple Leafs 30%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Hurricanes by 3+40.9%
Hurricanes by 212.2%
Hurricanes by 117.0%
Maple Leafs by 117.5%
Maple Leafs by 26.4%
Maple Leafs by 3+6.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Hurricanes by 1, without the luck Hurricanes by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Hurricanes5333.79−0.79
Maple Leafs3231.99+1.01

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:53 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Oliver Ekman-Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 5:44 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Nicholas Robertson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 5:21 Slashing on the Hurricanes (Alexander Nikishin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 18:03 High sticking double minor on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 4 minutes on the power play +8% CAR
P2 3:46 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Sean Walker): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR
P3 9:50 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Hurricanes were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:12 Dakota Joshua scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 17% chance +14% TOR –
2 P2 18:03 High sticking double minor on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% CAR –
3 P2 14:03 Jordan Staal scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 11% chance +18% CAR –
4 P2 7:25 Eric Robinson scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 17% chance +19% CAR –
5 P2 6:13 John Tavares scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 10% chance +21% TOR –
6 P2 2:20 K'Andre Miller scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 12% chance +22% CAR –
7 P3 6:10 William Nylander scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 16% chance +31% TOR –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Hurricanes won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Hurricanes 77% · Maple Leafs 23%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Hurricanes 70% · Maple Leafs 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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