Blackhawks lucky 4 
Islanders unlucky 3 Long shot · Blackhawks win 19% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Mar 23, 2026 – Mar 29, 2026
NHL week 25: who deserved to win
9 of 54 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Blackhawks beat the Islanders 4–3 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 54 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Blackhawks lucky 4 Islanders unlucky 3 Long shot · Blackhawks win 19% of replays 
Rangers unlucky 3 
Maple Leafs lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Maple Leafs win 29% of replays 
Avalanche lucky 6 
Penguins unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Avalanche win 30% of replays 
Capitals lucky 7 
Mammoth unlucky 4 Replays favor loser · Capitals win 30% of replays 
Red Wings lucky 5 
Sabres unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 36% of replays 
Blue Jackets unlucky 1 
Canadiens lucky 2 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 38% of replays Canadiens lucky 3 
Hurricanes unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 39% of replays Capitals lucky 5 
Golden Knights unlucky 4 Replays favor loser · Capitals win 39% of replays 
Panthers unlucky 1 Rangers lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Rangers win 39% of replays 
Canucks 3 
Flames 7 Coin flip · Flames win 40% of replays 
Kraken 4 
Lightning 3 Coin flip · Kraken win 41% of replays Golden Knights 1 
Jets 4 Coin flip · Jets win 41% of replays 
Bruins 4 Sabres 3 Coin flip · Bruins win 42% of replays 
Sharks 3 
Predators 6 Coin flip · Predators win 42% of replays 
Wild 3 Bruins 6 Coin flip · Bruins win 43% of replays Blue Jackets 3 
Flyers 2 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 44% of replays Sharks 1 
Blues 2 Coin flip · Blues win 47% of replays 
Senators 3 Red Wings 2 Coin flip · Senators win 48% of replays 
Kings 2 Flames 3 Coin flip · Flames win 48% of replays Hurricanes 2 Canadiens 5 Coin flip · Canadiens win 48% of replays Senators 2 Lightning 4 Coin flip · Lightning win 49% of replays Kraken 2 Sabres 3 Coin flip · Sabres win 49% of replays Kraken 4 Panthers 5 Coin flip · Panthers win 50% of replays 
Ducks 5 Canucks 3 Coin flip · Ducks win 52% of replays 
Oilers 5 Mammoth 2 Coin flip · Oilers win 52% of replays Jets 4 Avalanche 2 Coin flip · Jets win 52% of replays Oilers 4 Golden Knights 3 Coin flip · Oilers win 53% of replays 
Stars 1 Flyers 2 Coin flip · Flyers win 53% of replays Ducks 3 Flames 2 Coin flip · Ducks win 54% of replays Stars 6 Penguins 3 Coin flip · Stars win 56% of replays Stars 1 Islanders 2 Coin flip · Islanders win 58% of replays Predators 2 Lightning 3 Coin flip · Lightning win 59% of replays Mammoth 6 Kings 2 Coin flip · Mammoth win 60% of replays Ducks 2 Oilers 4 Coin flip · Oilers win 60% of replays 
Devils 4 Predators 2 Replays agree · Devils win 62% of replays Bruins 4 Blue Jackets 3 Replays agree · Bruins win 62% of replays Capitals 0 Blues 3 Replays agree · Blues win 62% of replays Wild 3 Lightning 6 Replays agree · Lightning win 63% of replays Devils 6 Stars 4 Replays agree · Devils win 63% of replays Penguins 4 Senators 3 Replays agree · Penguins win 64% of replays Flyers 5 Red Wings 3 Replays agree · Flyers win 65% of replays Maple Leafs 4 Bruins 2 Replays agree · Maple Leafs win 66% of replays Sharks 3 Blue Jackets 2 Replays agree · Sharks win 66% of replays Blackhawks 3 Devils 5 Replays agree · Devils win 66% of replays Senators 2 Rangers 1 Replays agree · Senators win 70% of replays Canadiens 4 Predators 1 Replays agree · Canadiens win 70% of replays Kings 4 Canucks 0 Replays agree · Kings win 71% of replays Maple Leafs 1 Blues 5 Replays agree · Blues win 72% of replays Avalanche 3 Jets 2 Replays agree · Avalanche win 74% of replays Blackhawks 1 Rangers 6 Replays agree · Rangers win 74% of replays Devils 2 Hurricanes 5 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 76% of replays Panthers 2 Islanders 5 Replays agree · Islanders win 80% of replays Wild 3 Panthers 2 Replays agree · Wild win 80% of replays Blackhawks 1 Flyers 5 Replays agree · Flyers win 84% of replays Week 25 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackhawks | W 4–3 @ Islanders Mar 24, 2026 | 19% | +81 |
| 2 | Maple Leafs | W 4–3 vs Rangers Mar 25, 2026 | 29% | +71 |
| 3 | Avalanche | W 6–2 @ Penguins Mar 24, 2026 | 30% | +70 |
| 4 | Capitals | W 7–4 @ Mammoth Mar 26, 2026 | 30% | +70 |
| 5 | Red Wings | W 5–2 @ Sabres Mar 27, 2026 | 36% | +64 |
| 6 | Canadiens | W 2–1 vs Blue Jackets Mar 26, 2026 | 38% | +62 |
| 7 | Canadiens | W 3–1 @ Hurricanes Mar 29, 2026 | 39% | +61 |
| 8 | Capitals | W 5–4 SO @ Golden Knights Mar 28, 2026 | 39% | +61 |
| 9 | Rangers | W 3–1 vs Panthers Mar 29, 2026 | 39% | +61 |
| 10 | Flames | W 7–3 vs Canucks Mar 28, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 11 | Kraken | W 4–3 OT @ Lightning Mar 26, 2026 | 41% | +59 |
| 12 | Jets | W 4–1 vs Golden Knights Mar 24, 2026 | 41% | +59 |
| 13 | Bruins | W 4–3 OT @ Sabres Mar 25, 2026 | 42% | +58 |
| 14 | Predators | W 6–3 vs Sharks Mar 24, 2026 | 42% | +58 |
| 15 | Bruins | W 6–3 vs Wild Mar 28, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 16 | Blue Jackets | W 3–2 @ Flyers Mar 24, 2026 | 44% | +56 |
| 17 | Blues | W 2–1 OT vs Sharks Mar 26, 2026 | 47% | +53 |
| 18 | Senators | W 3–2 @ Red Wings Mar 24, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 19 | Flames | W 3–2 SO vs Kings Mar 24, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 20 | Canadiens | W 5–2 vs Hurricanes Mar 24, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 21 | Lightning | W 4–2 vs Senators Mar 28, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 22 | Sabres | W 3–2 SO vs Kraken Mar 28, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 23 | Panthers | W 5–4 SO vs Kraken Mar 24, 2026 | 50% | +50 |
| 24 | Ducks | W 5–3 @ Canucks Mar 24, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 25 | Oilers | W 5–2 @ Mammoth Mar 24, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 26 | Jets | W 4–2 @ Avalanche Mar 28, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 27 | Oilers | W 4–3 OT @ Golden Knights Mar 26, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 28 | Flyers | W 2–1 OT vs Stars Mar 29, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 29 | Ducks | W 3–2 OT @ Flames Mar 26, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 30 | Stars | W 6–3 @ Penguins Mar 28, 2026 | 56% | +44 |
| 31 | Islanders | W 2–1 vs Stars Mar 26, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 32 | Lightning | W 3–2 vs Predators Mar 29, 2026 | 59% | +41 |
| 33 | Mammoth | W 6–2 @ Kings Mar 28, 2026 | 60% | +40 |
| 34 | Oilers | W 4–2 vs Ducks Mar 28, 2026 | 60% | +40 |
| 35 | Devils | W 4–2 @ Predators Mar 26, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 36 | Bruins | W 4–3 SO @ Blue Jackets Mar 29, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 37 | Blues | W 3–0 vs Capitals Mar 24, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 38 | Lightning | W 6–3 vs Wild Mar 24, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 39 | Devils | W 6–4 @ Stars Mar 24, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 40 | Penguins | W 4–3 SO @ Senators Mar 26, 2026 | 64% | +36 |
| 41 | Flyers | W 5–3 @ Red Wings Mar 28, 2026 | 65% | +35 |
| 42 | Maple Leafs | W 4–2 @ Bruins Mar 24, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 43 | Sharks | W 3–2 @ Blue Jackets Mar 28, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 44 | Devils | W 5–3 vs Blackhawks Mar 29, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 45 | Senators | W 2–1 @ Rangers Mar 23, 2026 | 70% | +30 |
| 46 | Canadiens | W 4–1 @ Predators Mar 28, 2026 | 70% | +30 |
| 47 | Kings | W 4–0 @ Canucks Mar 26, 2026 | 71% | +29 |
| 48 | Blues | W 5–1 vs Maple Leafs Mar 28, 2026 | 72% | +28 |
| 49 | Avalanche | W 3–2 @ Jets Mar 26, 2026 | 74% | +26 |
| 50 | Rangers | W 6–1 vs Blackhawks Mar 27, 2026 | 74% | +26 |
| 51 | Hurricanes | W 5–2 vs Devils Mar 28, 2026 | 76% | +24 |
| 52 | Islanders | W 5–2 vs Panthers Mar 28, 2026 | 80% | +20 |
| 53 | Wild | W 3–2 @ Panthers Mar 26, 2026 | 80% | +20 |
| 54 | Flyers | W 5–1 vs Blackhawks Mar 26, 2026 | 84% | +16 |
| 55 | Blackhawks | L 1–5 @ Flyers Mar 26, 2026 | 16% | −16 |
| 56 | Panthers | L 2–3 vs Wild Mar 26, 2026 | 20% | −20 |
| 57 | Panthers | L 2–5 @ Islanders Mar 28, 2026 | 20% | −20 |
| 58 | Devils | L 2–5 @ Hurricanes Mar 28, 2026 | 24% | −24 |
| 59 | Blackhawks | L 1–6 @ Rangers Mar 27, 2026 | 26% | −26 |
| 60 | Jets | L 2–3 vs Avalanche Mar 26, 2026 | 26% | −26 |
| 61 | Maple Leafs | L 1–5 @ Blues Mar 28, 2026 | 28% | −28 |
| 62 | Canucks | L 0–4 vs Kings Mar 26, 2026 | 29% | −29 |
| 63 | Predators | L 1–4 vs Canadiens Mar 28, 2026 | 30% | −30 |
| 64 | Rangers | L 1–2 vs Senators Mar 23, 2026 | 30% | −30 |
| 65 | Blackhawks | L 3–5 @ Devils Mar 29, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 66 | Blue Jackets | L 2–3 vs Sharks Mar 28, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 67 | Bruins | L 2–4 vs Maple Leafs Mar 24, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 68 | Red Wings | L 3–5 vs Flyers Mar 28, 2026 | 35% | −35 |
| 69 | Senators | L 3–4 SO vs Penguins Mar 26, 2026 | 36% | −36 |
| 70 | Stars | L 4–6 vs Devils Mar 24, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 71 | Wild | L 3–6 @ Lightning Mar 24, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 72 | Capitals | L 0–3 @ Blues Mar 24, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 73 | Blue Jackets | L 3–4 SO vs Bruins Mar 29, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 74 | Predators | L 2–4 vs Devils Mar 26, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 75 | Ducks | L 2–4 @ Oilers Mar 28, 2026 | 40% | −40 |
| 76 | Kings | L 2–6 vs Mammoth Mar 28, 2026 | 40% | −40 |
| 77 | Predators | L 2–3 @ Lightning Mar 29, 2026 | 41% | −41 |
| 78 | Stars | L 1–2 @ Islanders Mar 26, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 79 | Penguins | L 3–6 vs Stars Mar 28, 2026 | 44% | −44 |
| 80 | Flames | L 2–3 OT vs Ducks Mar 26, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 81 | Stars | L 1–2 OT @ Flyers Mar 29, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 82 | Golden Knights | L 3–4 OT vs Oilers Mar 26, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 83 | Avalanche | L 2–4 vs Jets Mar 28, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 84 | Mammoth | L 2–5 vs Oilers Mar 24, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 85 | Canucks | L 3–5 vs Ducks Mar 24, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 86 | Kraken | L 4–5 SO @ Panthers Mar 24, 2026 | 50% | −50 |
| 87 | Kraken | L 2–3 SO @ Sabres Mar 28, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 88 | Senators | L 2–4 @ Lightning Mar 28, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 89 | Hurricanes | L 2–5 @ Canadiens Mar 24, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 90 | Kings | L 2–3 SO @ Flames Mar 24, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 91 | Red Wings | L 2–3 vs Senators Mar 24, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 92 | Sharks | L 1–2 OT @ Blues Mar 26, 2026 | 53% | −53 |
| 93 | Flyers | L 2–3 vs Blue Jackets Mar 24, 2026 | 56% | −56 |
| 94 | Wild | L 3–6 @ Bruins Mar 28, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 95 | Sharks | L 3–6 @ Predators Mar 24, 2026 | 58% | −58 |
| 96 | Sabres | L 3–4 OT vs Bruins Mar 25, 2026 | 58% | −58 |
| 97 | Golden Knights | L 1–4 @ Jets Mar 24, 2026 | 59% | −59 |
| 98 | Lightning | L 3–4 OT vs Kraken Mar 26, 2026 | 59% | −59 |
| 99 | Canucks | L 3–7 @ Flames Mar 28, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 100 | Panthers | L 1–3 @ Rangers Mar 29, 2026 | 61% | −61 |
| 101 | Golden Knights | L 4–5 SO vs Capitals Mar 28, 2026 | 61% | −61 |
| 102 | Hurricanes | L 1–3 vs Canadiens Mar 29, 2026 | 61% | −61 |
| 103 | Blue Jackets | L 1–2 @ Canadiens Mar 26, 2026 | 62% | −62 |
| 104 | Sabres | L 2–5 vs Red Wings Mar 27, 2026 | 64% | −64 |
| 105 | Mammoth | L 4–7 vs Capitals Mar 26, 2026 | 70% | −70 |
| 106 | Penguins | L 2–6 vs Avalanche Mar 24, 2026 | 70% | −70 |
| 107 | Rangers | L 3–4 @ Maple Leafs Mar 25, 2026 | 71% | −71 |
| 108 | Islanders | L 3–4 vs Blackhawks Mar 24, 2026 | 81% | −81 |