luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 26, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Senators, Mar 26, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Penguins beat the Senators 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Senators had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 21 points of win probability to the Senators.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Penguins won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Penguins.

Final (SO)

Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Ottawa Senators 3

March 26, 2026 · Canadian Tire Centre

Luck index +36 Penguins lucky · −36 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 6, Senators win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 5 OTT 0
  2. 2 PIT 5 OTT 1
  3. 3 PIT 5 OTT 2
  4. 4 PIT 5 OTT 3
  5. 5 PIT 4 OTT 3
  6. 6 PIT 5 OTT 4
  7. 7 PIT 1 OTT 2
  8. 8 PIT 2 OTT 3
  9. 9 PIT 2 OTT 4
  10. 10 PIT 0 OTT 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Penguins win 64% of them, Senators 36%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+35.0%
Penguins by 211.2%
Penguins by 117.6%
Senators by 117.8%
Senators by 27.3%
Senators by 3+11.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 goals to the Senators: the final margin was Penguins by 1, without the luck Penguins by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins6333.99−0.99
Senators4132.62+0.38

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:31 Tripping on the Penguins (Erik Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 0:11 Tripping on the Senators (Dylan Cozens): 2 minutes on the power play +6% PIT
P3 19:38 Delaying game puck over glass on the Senators (Artem Zub): 2 minutes on the power play +6% PIT
P3 16:02 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Penguins (PIT): 2 minutes on the power play +6% OTT

When it happened

Senators’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Senators were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:32 Drake Batherson scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% OTT –
2 P1 6:14 Rickard Rakell scored on a snap shot from 44 feetShooting · 4% chance +16% PIT –
3 P2 18:10 Nick Cousins scored on a backhand shot from 4 feetShooting · 8% chance +17% OTT –
4 P2 16:15 Erik Karlsson scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 5% chance +18% PIT –
5 P2 0:05 Bryan Rust’s wrist shot from 34 feet was savedShooting · 9% chanceNoel Acciari’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance +7% OTT –
6 P3 18:17 Rickard Rakell scored on a slap shot from 30 feetShooting · 9% chance +24% PIT –
7 P3 16:02 Drake Batherson scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 22% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Penguins (PIT): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +28% OTT –
8 SO The game turned hereThe Penguins won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 69% · Senators 31%

Final margin
Penguins by 1
Luck in goals
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 64% · Senators 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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