luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 28, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Golden Knights, Mar 28, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Golden Knights 5–4, but the replays lean toward the Golden Knights: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Capitals.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Capitals won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Capitals.

Final (SO)

Washington Capitals 5
Vegas Golden Knights 4

March 28, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena

Luck index +61 Capitals very lucky · −61 Golden Knights

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 4, Golden Knights win 6.

  1. 1 WSH 5 VGK 2
  2. 2 WSH 3 VGK 1
  3. 3 WSH 3 VGK 2
  4. 4 WSH 3 VGK 2
  5. 5 WSH 2 VGK 3
  6. 6 WSH 1 VGK 2
  7. 7 WSH 3 VGK 5
  8. 8 WSH 2 VGK 5
  9. 9 WSH 2 VGK 5
  10. 10 WSH 2 VGK 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Capitals win 39% of them, Golden Knights 61%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+10.1%
Capitals by 28.3%
Capitals by 120.7%
Golden Knights by 123.2%
Golden Knights by 212.0%
Golden Knights by 3+25.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Capitals by 1, without the luck Golden Knights by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals2841.87+2.13
Golden Knights4742.98+1.02

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 18:29 Holding on the Golden Knights (Brett Howden): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P2 16:31 Interference on the Capitals (Rasmus Sandin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VGK
P2 10:14 High sticking on the Golden Knights (Brayden McNabb): 2 minutes on the power play +2% WSH
P2 5:11 Tripping on the Golden Knights (Keegan Kolesar): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
P2 0:07 Slashing on the Capitals (Tom Wilson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VGK
P3 15:24 High sticking double minor on the Capitals (Dylan Strome): 4 minutes on the power play +10% VGK
P3 13:29 Slashing on the Golden Knights (Rasmus Andersson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
P3 13:02 Tripping on the Golden Knights (Mitch Marner): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
OT 0:25 Slashing on the Golden Knights (Noah Hanifin): 2 minutes on the power play +12% WSH

When it happened

Golden Knights’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Golden Knights were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:54 Hendrix Lapierre scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% WSH –
2 P2 18:05 Justin Sourdif scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 20% chance +13% WSH –
3 P2 8:57 Rasmus Andersson scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 22% chance +13% VGK –
4 P2 6:42 Jack Eichel scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 15% chance +19% VGK –
5 P3 19:29 Mitch Marner scored on a snap shot from 60 feetShooting · 2% chance +25% VGK –
6 P3 11:06 Dylan Strome scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 9% chance +28% WSH –
7 SO The game turned hereThe Capitals won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% WSH –
8 OT 0:25 Slashing on the Golden Knights (Noah Hanifin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 30% · Golden Knights 70%

Final margin
Capitals by 1
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Golden Knights by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 39% · Golden Knights 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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