luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 24, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Predators, Mar 24, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Predators beat the Sharks 6–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 39 points of win probability to the Predators.

The biggest swing (P1, 12:11 left): Matthew Wood scored on a wrist shot from 31 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final

San Jose Sharks 3
Nashville Predators 6

March 24, 2026 · Bridgestone Arena

Luck index +58 Predators lucky · −58 Sharks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 6, Predators win 4.

  1. 1 SJS 6 NSH 2
  2. 2 SJS 4 NSH 1
  3. 3 SJS 5 NSH 2
  4. 4 SJS 4 NSH 2
  5. 5 SJS 1 NSH 0
  6. 6 SJS 2 NSH 1
  7. 7 SJS 3 NSH 4
  8. 8 SJS 3 NSH 4
  9. 9 SJS 2 NSH 4
  10. 10 SJS 1 NSH 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Sharks win 58% of them, Predators 42%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+24.4%
Sharks by 212.3%
Sharks by 121.2%
Predators by 123.4%
Predators by 28.3%
Predators by 3+10.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Predators by 3, without the luck Predators by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks5032.88+0.12
Predators3261.97+4.03

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 2:16 Tripping on the Sharks (Kiefer Sherwood): 2 minutes on the power play +1% NSH
P2 8:36 Tripping on the Sharks (Igor Chernyshov): 2 minutes on the power play 0% NSH
P2 5:46 High sticking on the Predators (Fedor Svechkov): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SJS
P2 3:46 Hooking on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SJS
P2 3:11 Delaying game puck over glass on the Predators (Ryan O'Reilly): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SJS
P3 8:44 Tripping on the Predators (Zachary L'Heureux): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SJS

When it happened

Predators’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Predators were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:50 John Klingberg missed the net with a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 16% chance +3% NSH –
2 P1 17:26 Filip Forsberg scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% NSH –
3 P1 16:36 Collin Graf snap, 12 ft: above crossbar (19% chance)Shooting +3% NSH –
4 P1 13:35 Adam Gaudette scored on a tip from 20 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% SJS –
5 P1 12:11 Matthew Wood scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% NSH –
6 P1 8:20 Roman Josi scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 7% chance +13% NSH –
7 P1 7:34 Luke Evangelista scored on a deflected shot from 8 feetShooting · 10% chance +8% NSH –
8 P1 3:24 Brady Skjei scored on a slap shot from 63 feetShooting · 2% chance +4% NSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 47% · Predators 53%

Final margin
Predators by 3
Luck in goals
2.9 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
Predators by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 58% · Predators 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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