2025-26 regular season · March 24, 2026 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Kraken at Panthers, Mar 24, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Kraken 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Panthers.
The biggest swing (SO): the Panthers won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final (SO)
 Seattle Kraken | 4 |
|---|---|
 Florida Panthers | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Panthers lucky · −50 Kraken
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kraken win 5, Panthers win 5.
- 1 SEA 4 FLA 1
- 2 SEA 5 FLA 2
- 3 SEA 4 FLA 2
- 4 SEA 2 FLA 1
- 5 SEA 2 FLA 1
- 6 SEA 1 FLA 2
- 7 SEA 3 FLA 4
- 8 SEA 2 FLA 3
- 9 SEA 1 FLA 3
- 10 SEA 2 FLA 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Kraken win 50% of them, Panthers 50%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kraken by 3+ | 16.8% |
| Kraken by 2 | 10.1% |
| Kraken by 1 | 22.8% |
| Panthers by 1 | 25.0% |
| Panthers by 2 | 10.8% |
| Panthers by 3+ | 14.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraken | 38 | 4 | 2.24 | +1.76 |
 Panthers | 32 | 4 | 2.09 | +1.91 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 15:20 | Tripping on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P2 13:08 | Holding on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 17:28 | Nolan Foote scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 21% chance | +15% FLA | – |
| 2 | P2 13:08 | Holding on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% SEA | – |
| 3 | P3 16:41 | Kaapo Kakko’s wrist shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +4% FLA | – |
| 4 | P3 14:44 | Eetu Luostarinen scored on a deflected shot from 10 feetShooting · 7% chance | +13% FLA | – |
| 5 | P3 12:23 | Carter Verhaeghe scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 2% chance | +4% FLA | – |
| 6 | P3 3:36 | Jordan Eberle scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 15% chance | +7% SEA | – |
| 7 | P3 3:22 | Bobby McMann scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 25% chance | +30% SEA | – |
| 8 | SO | The Panthers won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +51% FLA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kraken 53% · Panthers 47%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kraken by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Kraken 50% · Panthers 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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