luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 24, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Avalanche at Penguins, Mar 24, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Avalanche beat the Penguins 6–2, but the replays lean toward the Penguins: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 36 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

The biggest swing (P1, 4:36 left): Sam Malinski scored on a wrist shot from 51 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final

Colorado Avalanche 6
Pittsburgh Penguins 2

March 24, 2026 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +70 Avalanche very lucky · −70 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Avalanche win 3, Penguins win 7.

  1. 1 COL 3 PIT 0
  2. 2 COL 2 PIT 1
  3. 3 COL 5 PIT 4
  4. 4 COL 2 PIT 3
  5. 5 COL 2 PIT 3
  6. 6 COL 1 PIT 3
  7. 7 COL 1 PIT 4
  8. 8 COL 1 PIT 4
  9. 9 COL 3 PIT 6
  10. 10 COL 0 PIT 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Avalanche win 30% of them, Penguins 70%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Avalanche by 3+7.2%
Avalanche by 25.5%
Avalanche by 116.9%
Penguins by 120.2%
Penguins by 212.6%
Penguins by 3+37.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 goals to the Avalanche: the final margin was Avalanche by 4, without the luck Penguins by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Avalanche3951.83+3.17
Penguins4723.51−1.51

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 3:21 Tripping on the Penguins (Noel Acciari): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P2 12:22 A Penguins goal came off the board on review (goal interference) +7% COL
P2 11:35 High sticking double minor on the Avalanche (Nazem Kadri): 4 minutes on the power play +3% PIT
P3 18:03 High sticking on the Avalanche (Brent Burns): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PIT
P3 17:06 Tripping on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PIT
P3 14:32 Tripping on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power play 0% COL
P3 13:11 Hooking on the Penguins (Bryan Rust): 2 minutes on the power play 0% COL

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Avalanche were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:01 Anthony Mantha missed the net with a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 20% chance +3% COL –
2 P1 15:03 Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 16% chance +14% COL –
3 P1 11:51 Egor Chinakhov scored on a slap shot from 56 feetShooting · 3% chance +16% PIT –
4 P1 4:36 Sam Malinski scored on a wrist shot from 51 feetShooting · 2% chance +18% COL –
5 P1 3:21 Tripping on the Penguins (Noel Acciari): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% COL –
6 P1 3:16 Martin Necas scored on a slap shot from 36 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% COL –
7 P1 2:41 Parker Kelly scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 7% chance +10% COL –
8 P2 12:22 A Penguins goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goals +7% COL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Avalanche 44% · Penguins 56%

Final margin
Avalanche by 4
Luck in goals
4.1 for the Avalanche
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Avalanche 30% · Penguins 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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