luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 26, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Mammoth, Mar 26, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Mammoth 7–4, but the replays lean toward the Mammoth: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 45 points of win probability to the Capitals.

The game turned on a luck play (P2, 8:32 left): Alex Ovechkin scored on a snap shot from 53 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Capitals. The biggest single swing (P3, 17:17 left): Anthony Beauvillier scored on a tip from 12 feet.

Final

Washington Capitals 7
Utah Mammoth 4

March 26, 2026 · Delta Center

Luck index +70 Capitals very lucky · −70 Mammoth

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 3, Mammoth win 7.

  1. 1 WSH 6 UTA 3
  2. 2 WSH 4 UTA 3
  3. 3 WSH 6 UTA 5
  4. 4 WSH 2 UTA 3
  5. 5 WSH 4 UTA 5
  6. 6 WSH 3 UTA 5
  7. 7 WSH 0 UTA 3
  8. 8 WSH 0 UTA 4
  9. 9 WSH 5 UTA 10
  10. 10 WSH 0 UTA 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.7 replays ended

Capitals win 30% of them, Mammoth 70%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+8.3%
Capitals by 25.7%
Capitals by 115.9%
Mammoth by 115.7%
Mammoth by 210.9%
Mammoth by 3+43.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Capitals by 3, without the luck Mammoth by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals3662.51+3.49
Mammoth6945.13−1.13

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 7:35 Tripping on the Capitals (Dylan Strome): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P1 5:24 Slashing on the Mammoth (Sean Durzi): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P1 1:22 Roughing on the Capitals (Tom Wilson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 14:20 Roughing on the Capitals (Justin Sourdif): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 4:46 Hooking on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
P2 1:14 Interference on the Capitals (Tom Wilson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% UTA
P3 19:11 Instigator on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WSH

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:53 Ivan Miroshnichenko scored on a slap shot from 56 feetShooting · 2% chance +16% WSH –
2 P1 6:56 Dylan Guenther scored on a slap shot from 30 feetShooting · 15% chance +15% UTA –
3 P1 3:01 Dylan Guenther scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance +15% UTA –
4 P2 8:32 The game turned hereAlex Ovechkin scored on a snap shot from 53 feetShooting · 3% chance +21% WSH –
5 P3 17:17 Anthony Beauvillier scored on a tip from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance +25% WSH –
6 P3 13:58 Rasmus Sandin scored on a snap shot from 44 feetShooting · 4% chance +15% WSH –
7 P3 11:54 MacKenzie Weegar scored on a snap shot from 49 feetShooting · 3% chance +15% UTA –
8 P3 10:06 Ivan Miroshnichenko scored on a backhand shot from 20 feetShooting · 5% chance +14% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 42% · Mammoth 58%

Final margin
Capitals by 3
Luck in goals
3.4 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 30% · Mammoth 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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