2025-26 regular season · March 26, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Kings at Canucks, Mar 26, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kings beat the Canucks 4–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 2:26 left): Scott Laughton scored on a deflected shot from 6 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Kings.
Final
 Los Angeles Kings | 4 |
|---|---|
 Vancouver Canucks | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Kings lucky · −29 Canucks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kings win 7, Canucks win 3.
- 1 LAK 7 VAN 2
- 2 LAK 5 VAN 1
- 3 LAK 5 VAN 2
- 4 LAK 4 VAN 1
- 5 LAK 2 VAN 0
- 6 LAK 3 VAN 2
- 7 LAK 3 VAN 2
- 8 LAK 2 VAN 3
- 9 LAK 1 VAN 2
- 10 LAK 0 VAN 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kings win 71% of them, Canucks 29%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kings by 3+ | 36.7% |
| Kings by 2 | 14.0% |
| Kings by 1 | 20.0% |
| Canucks by 1 | 19.8% |
| Canucks by 2 | 4.6% |
| Canucks by 3+ | 5.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kings | 47 | 3 | 2.81 | +0.19 |
 Canucks | 32 | 0 | 1.55 | −1.55 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 3:23 | Holding the stick on the Canucks (Zeev Buium): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P1 1:37 | Tripping on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P2 8:36 | Hooking on the Kings (Quinton Byfield): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% VAN |
| P3 11:11 | Hooking on the Kings (Joel Armia): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% VAN |
When it happened
Canucks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:18 | Liam Ohgren’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +3% LAK | – |
| 2 | P1 3:23 | Holding the stick on the Canucks (Zeev Buium): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% LAK | – |
| 3 | P1 3:15 | Quinton Byfield’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance | +5% VAN | – |
| 4 | P1 2:26 | Scott Laughton scored on a deflected shot from 6 feetShooting · 13% chance | +16% LAK | – |
| 5 | P1 1:37 | Tripping on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% LAK | – |
| 6 | P2 18:39 | Trevor Moore scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 9% chance | +14% LAK | – |
| 7 | P2 8:36 | Hooking on the Kings (Quinton Byfield): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% VAN | – |
| 8 | P2 0:39 | Artemi Panarin scored on a backhand shot from 17 feetShooting · 9% chance | +7% LAK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kings 96% · Canucks 4%
- Final margin
- Kings by 4
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Kings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kings by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Kings 71% · Canucks 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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