luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 24, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Canucks, Mar 24, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Canucks 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ducks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 19 points of win probability to the Ducks.

The game turned on a luck play (P3, 18:59 left): Mikael Granlund scored on a snap shot from 22 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Ducks. The biggest single swing (P3, 14:15 left): Mason McTavish scored on a snap shot from 33 feet.

Final

Anaheim Ducks 5
Vancouver Canucks 3

March 24, 2026 · Rogers Arena

Luck index +48 Ducks lucky · −48 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 5, Canucks win 5.

  1. 1 ANA 7 VAN 2
  2. 2 ANA 6 VAN 3
  3. 3 ANA 4 VAN 2
  4. 4 ANA 1 VAN 0
  5. 5 ANA 3 VAN 2
  6. 6 ANA 2 VAN 3
  7. 7 ANA 4 VAN 5
  8. 8 ANA 4 VAN 6
  9. 9 ANA 1 VAN 4
  10. 10 ANA 1 VAN 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Ducks win 52% of them, Canucks 48%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+23.6%
Ducks by 29.5%
Ducks by 118.7%
Canucks by 119.0%
Canucks by 29.3%
Canucks by 3+19.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Ducks by 2, without the luck Ducks by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks4843.67+0.33
Canucks4933.48−0.48

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:37 Holding on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 15:03 Holding on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 11:03 Tripping on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 7:50 Delaying game puck over glass on the Ducks (Lukas Dostal): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN
P2 1:08 Tripping on the Canucks (Curtis Douglas): 2 minutes on the power play +6% ANA
P2 0:44 Delaying game puck over glass on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% ANA

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:15 Jake DeBrusk scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% VAN –
2 P2 14:34 Alex Killorn scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +18% ANA –
3 P2 12:10 Mikael Granlund scored on a bat shot from 4 feetShooting · 29% chance +15% ANA –
4 P2 6:47 Brock Boeser scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 7% chance +21% VAN –
5 P3 18:59 The game turned hereMikael Granlund scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 23% chance +20% ANA –
6 P3 17:38 Drew O'Connor scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 15% chance +23% VAN –
7 P3 14:15 Mason McTavish scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 5% chance +28% ANA –
8 P3 9:55 Liam Ohgren’s snap shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +6% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 69% · Canucks 31%

Final margin
Ducks by 2
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
Ducks by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 52% · Canucks 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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