luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 26, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Golden Knights, Mar 26, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Oilers beat the Golden Knights 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Oilers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Oilers.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Oilers won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Oilers.

Final (OT)

Edmonton Oilers 4
Vegas Golden Knights 3

March 26, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena

Luck index +47 Oilers lucky · −47 Golden Knights

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 5, Golden Knights win 5.

  1. 1 EDM 5 VGK 1
  2. 2 EDM 4 VGK 1
  3. 3 EDM 4 VGK 2
  4. 4 EDM 3 VGK 2
  5. 5 EDM 1 VGK 0
  6. 6 EDM 2 VGK 3
  7. 7 EDM 2 VGK 3
  8. 8 EDM 1 VGK 2
  9. 9 EDM 0 VGK 2
  10. 10 EDM 2 VGK 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oilers win 53% of them, Golden Knights 47%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+20.0%
Oilers by 210.9%
Oilers by 122.2%
Golden Knights by 124.0%
Golden Knights by 29.9%
Golden Knights by 3+13.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Oilers: the final margin was Oilers by 1, without the luck Oilers by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers4032.43+0.57
Golden Knights3132.07+0.93

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:53 Holding on the Golden Knights (Rasmus Andersson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 7:04 Hooking on the Golden Knights (Shea Theodore): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 5:47 Interference on the Oilers (Evan Bouchard): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VGK
P2 11:05 Tripping on the Oilers (Zach Hyman): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VGK
OT 3:58 Holding on the Oilers (Zach Hyman): 2 minutes on the power play +12% VGK

When it happened

Golden Knights’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Golden Knights were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:08 Matt Savoie scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 7% chance +16% EDM –
2 P2 15:51 Mark Stone scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 7% chance +19% VGK –
3 P2 12:33 Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 11% chance +19% EDM –
4 P2 5:09 Mark Stone scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +21% VGK –
5 P2 3:18 Zach Hyman scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 13% chance +21% EDM –
6 P3 13:39 Ivan Barbashev scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 15% chance +25% VGK –
7 OT The game turned hereThe Oilers won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% EDM –
8 OT 3:58 Holding on the Oilers (Zach Hyman): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% VGK –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 55% · Golden Knights 45%

Final margin
Oilers by 1
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Oilers
Luck-adjusted margin
Oilers by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 53% · Golden Knights 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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