luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 29, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Predators at Lightning, Mar 29, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Predators 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lightning win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 24 points of win probability to the Lightning.

The biggest swing (P3, 15:07 left): Filip Forsberg scored on a tip from 34 feet, worth 27 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final

Nashville Predators 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 3

March 29, 2026 · Benchmark International Arena

Luck index +41 Lightning lucky · −41 Predators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Predators win 4, Lightning win 6.

  1. 1 NSH 5 TBL 2
  2. 2 NSH 4 TBL 2
  3. 3 NSH 3 TBL 2
  4. 4 NSH 2 TBL 1
  5. 5 NSH 3 TBL 4
  6. 6 NSH 1 TBL 2
  7. 7 NSH 1 TBL 3
  8. 8 NSH 0 TBL 2
  9. 9 NSH 2 TBL 5
  10. 10 NSH 0 TBL 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Predators win 41% of them, Lightning 59%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Predators by 3+14.2%
Predators by 27.4%
Predators by 119.1%
Lightning by 120.2%
Lightning by 210.0%
Lightning by 3+29.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Lightning: the final margin was Lightning by 1, without the luck Lightning by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Predators4523.26−1.26
Lightning5033.94−0.94

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:32 Holding on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P1 12:01 Tripping on the Lightning (Jake Guentzel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P1 2:37 Slashing on the Lightning (Scott Sabourin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P2 14:13 Hooking on the Predators (Luke Evangelista): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TBL
P2 8:43 High sticking on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P2 0:59 Interference on the Lightning (Darren Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NSH
P3 17:58 Holding on the Predators (Matthew Wood): 2 minutes on the power play +6% TBL
P3 8:45 Boarding on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH

When it happened

Lightning’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Lightning were ahead in it, below while the Predators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 11:29 Joakim Kemell scored on a deflected shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +19% NSH –
2 P2 6:28 Jake Guentzel scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance +21% TBL –
3 P3 16:54 Brayden Point’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 37% chance +10% NSH –
4 P3 16:52 Brayden Point’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 42% chance +11% NSH –
5 P3 15:27 Brandon Hagel scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 19% chance +22% TBL –
6 P3 15:07 Filip Forsberg scored on a tip from 34 feetShooting · 3% chance +27% NSH –
7 P3 13:08 Corey Perry scored on a snap shot from 3 feetShooting · 39% chance +18% TBL –
8 P3 0:23 Filip Forsberg missed the net with a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 24% chance +11% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Predators 40% · Lightning 60%

Final margin
Lightning by 1
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Lightning
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Predators 41% · Lightning 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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