luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 28, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Lightning, Mar 28, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Senators 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lightning win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Lightning.

The biggest swing (P3, 11:09 left): Emil Lilleberg scored on a backhand shot from 10 feet, worth 28 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final

Ottawa Senators 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 4

March 28, 2026 · Benchmark International Arena

Luck index +51 Lightning lucky · −51 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 5, Lightning win 5.

  1. 1 OTT 5 TBL 0
  2. 2 OTT 4 TBL 1
  3. 3 OTT 5 TBL 3
  4. 4 OTT 3 TBL 2
  5. 5 OTT 4 TBL 3
  6. 6 OTT 5 TBL 6
  7. 7 OTT 2 TBL 3
  8. 8 OTT 2 TBL 4
  9. 9 OTT 3 TBL 6
  10. 10 OTT 0 TBL 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Senators win 51% of them, Lightning 49%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+22.3%
Senators by 210.0%
Senators by 118.8%
Lightning by 120.4%
Lightning by 29.8%
Lightning by 3+18.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Lightning: the final margin was Lightning by 2, without the luck Lightning by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators4023.50−1.50
Lightning5143.00+1.00

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 10:51 Holding on the Senators (Drake Batherson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P1 1:46 Holding on the Senators (Warren Foegele): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P2 12:20 Interference on the Lightning (Emil Lilleberg): 2 minutes on the power play +5% OTT
P2 11:51 Roughing on the Senators (Carter Yakemchuk): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TBL
P2 2:08 Interference on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power play +6% OTT
P2 0:37 Cross checking on the Senators (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play +6% TBL

When it happened

Lightning’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Lightning were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:42 Dylan Cozens scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 4% chance +15% OTT –
2 P1 15:35 Jordan Spence scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 16% chance +12% OTT –
3 P2 16:23 Brandon Hagel scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% TBL –
4 P2 14:46 Charle-Edouard D'Astous scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 5% chance +19% TBL –
5 P2 12:03 Drake Batherson missed the net with a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 38% chance +8% TBL –
6 P2 12:02 Drake Batherson’s snap shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 55% chance +12% TBL –
7 P2 0:37 Cross checking on the Senators (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% TBL –
8 P3 11:09 Emil Lilleberg scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +28% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 26% · Lightning 74%

Final margin
Lightning by 2
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Lightning
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Senators 51% · Lightning 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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