luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 24, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Red Wings, Mar 24, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Senators beat the Red Wings 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Senators win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 43 points of win probability to the Senators.

The biggest swing (P1, 4:43 left): A Red Wings goal came off the board on review (off side), worth 18 points of win probability to the Senators.

Final

Ottawa Senators 3
Detroit Red Wings 2

March 24, 2026 · Little Caesars Arena

Luck index +52 Senators lucky · −52 Red Wings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 5, Red Wings win 5.

  1. 1 OTT 4 DET 0
  2. 2 OTT 4 DET 1
  3. 3 OTT 3 DET 1
  4. 4 OTT 3 DET 2
  5. 5 OTT 3 DET 2
  6. 6 OTT 1 DET 2
  7. 7 OTT 3 DET 4
  8. 8 OTT 1 DET 3
  9. 9 OTT 0 DET 3
  10. 10 OTT 1 DET 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Senators win 48% of them, Red Wings 52%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+15.2%
Senators by 210.1%
Senators by 122.4%
Red Wings by 123.5%
Red Wings by 210.2%
Red Wings by 3+18.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 goals to the Senators: the final margin was Senators by 1, without the luck Red Wings by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators3232.19+0.81
Red Wings5123.04−1.04

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:28 Roughing on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P1 11:22 Hooking on the Red Wings (Mason Appleton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 5:34 Tripping on the Senators (Jordan Spence): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P1 4:43 A Red Wings goal came off the board on review (off side) +18% OTT
P1 3:24 Tripping on the Red Wings (Simon Edvinsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P3 17:21 Tripping on the Senators (Nikolas Matinpalo): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DET
P3 6:06 Interference on the Senators (Ridly Greig): 2 minutes on the power play +6% DET

When it happened

Red Wings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Red Wings were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 4:43 A Red Wings goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +18% OTT –
2 P1 2:45 Brady Tkachuk scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 12% chance +16% OTT –
3 P2 10:32 Carter Yakemchuk scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% OTT –
4 P2 8:55 Lars Eller scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 10% chance +8% OTT –
5 P2 5:10 Dominik Shine scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 7% chance +8% DET –
6 P3 15:47 Dylan Larkin scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 23% chance +12% DET –
7 P3 0:12 Patrick Kane’s wrist shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +7% OTT –
8 P3 0:11 Dylan Larkin’s snap shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +9% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 34% · Red Wings 66%

Final margin
Senators by 1
Luck in goals
1.4 for the Senators
Luck-adjusted margin
Red Wings by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Senators 48% · Red Wings 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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