luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 28, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Islanders, Mar 28, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Panthers 5–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 10 points of win probability to the Panthers.

The biggest swing (P2, 5:08 left): Simon Holmstrom scored on a snap shot from 53 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Islanders.

Final

Florida Panthers 2
New York Islanders 5

March 28, 2026 · UBS Arena

Luck index +20 Islanders about even · −20 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Islanders win 8.

  1. 1 FLA 3 NYI 1
  2. 2 FLA 4 NYI 3
  3. 3 FLA 1 NYI 2
  4. 4 FLA 0 NYI 2
  5. 5 FLA 0 NYI 3
  6. 6 FLA 0 NYI 3
  7. 7 FLA 1 NYI 4
  8. 8 FLA 0 NYI 4
  9. 9 FLA 0 NYI 5
  10. 10 FLA 0 NYI 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 20% of them, Islanders 80%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+2.9%
Panthers by 23.2%
Panthers by 114.3%
Islanders by 115.4%
Islanders by 210.9%
Islanders by 3+53.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Panthers: the final margin was Islanders by 3, without the luck Islanders by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers4222.37−0.37
Islanders5954.04+0.96

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 2:56 High sticking on the Panthers (Nolan Foote): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P2 17:39 Interference on the Panthers (Donovan Sebrango): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P2 6:20 Tripping on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYI
P3 4:56 Interference on the Islanders (Carson Soucy): 2 minutes on the power play 0% FLA

When it happened

Islanders’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Islanders were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:54 Matthew Tkachuk scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% FLA –
2 P1 5:57 Matthew Tkachuk scored on a between-the-legs shot from 14 feetShooting · 20% chance +12% FLA –
3 P2 14:32 Marc Gatcomb scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 3% chance +16% NYI –
4 P2 7:51 Brayden Schenn scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 11% chance +20% NYI –
5 P2 7:21 Matthew Schaefer’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 28% chance +6% FLA –
6 P2 5:08 Simon Holmstrom scored on a snap shot from 53 feetShooting · 4% chance +22% NYI –
7 P2 3:00 Emil Heineman scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 6% chance +14% NYI –
8 P2 2:03 Casey Cizikas scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 12% chance +6% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 2% · Islanders 98%

Final margin
Islanders by 3
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Islanders by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 20% · Islanders 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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