luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 28, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Blues, Mar 28, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Blues beat the Maple Leafs 5–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 14:39 left): Jimmy Snuggerud scored on a snap shot from 9 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Blues.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 1
St. Louis Blues 5

March 28, 2026 · Enterprise Center

Luck index +28 Blues lucky · −28 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 3, Blues win 7.

  1. 1 TOR 6 STL 3
  2. 2 TOR 3 STL 2
  3. 3 TOR 2 STL 1
  4. 4 TOR 1 STL 2
  5. 5 TOR 2 STL 3
  6. 6 TOR 2 STL 4
  7. 7 TOR 0 STL 3
  8. 8 TOR 0 STL 3
  9. 9 TOR 3 STL 7
  10. 10 TOR 1 STL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 28% of them, Blues 72%. The line is what actually happened: Blues by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+4.9%
Maple Leafs by 25.0%
Maple Leafs by 118.3%
Blues by 120.9%
Blues by 213.9%
Blues by 3+37.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Blues: the final margin was Blues by 4, without the luck Blues by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs2711.57−0.57
Blues4753.16+1.84

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 7:19 High sticking double minor on the Blues (Jack Finley): 4 minutes on the power play +8% TOR
P2 3:23 High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power play +3% STL
P3 13:32 Holding on the Blues (Theo Lindstein): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR
P3 2:32 Holding on the Maple Leafs (Matias Maccelli): 2 minutes on the power play 0% STL

When it happened

Blues’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blues were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 7:19 High sticking double minor on the Blues (Jack Finley): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% TOR –
2 P1 4:49 Dakota Joshua missed the net with a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 16% chance +3% STL –
3 P2 15:09 Colton Parayko’s slap shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +4% TOR –
4 P2 14:39 Jimmy Snuggerud scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 15% chance +17% STL –
5 P2 9:25 Justin Holl scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 13% chance +13% STL –
6 P3 14:53 Jake McCabe scored on a wrist shot from 46 feetShooting · 1% chance +14% TOR –
7 P3 13:32 Holding on the Blues (Theo Lindstein): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% TOR –
8 P3 13:14 Pius Suter scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 14% chance +12% STL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 10% · Blues 90%

Final margin
Blues by 4
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Blues
Luck-adjusted margin
Blues by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 28% · Blues 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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