luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 26, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Avalanche at Jets, Mar 26, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Avalanche beat the Jets 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P3, 19:47 left): Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 5 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final

Colorado Avalanche 3
Winnipeg Jets 2

March 26, 2026 · Canada Life Centre

Luck index +26 Avalanche lucky · −26 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Avalanche win 7, Jets win 3.

  1. 1 COL 9 WPG 3
  2. 2 COL 5 WPG 1
  3. 3 COL 4 WPG 1
  4. 4 COL 5 WPG 2
  5. 5 COL 3 WPG 1
  6. 6 COL 3 WPG 2
  7. 7 COL 3 WPG 2
  8. 8 COL 4 WPG 5
  9. 9 COL 4 WPG 5
  10. 10 COL 3 WPG 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Avalanche win 74% of them, Jets 26%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Avalanche by 3+46.6%
Avalanche by 211.7%
Avalanche by 115.8%
Jets by 116.1%
Jets by 24.5%
Jets by 3+5.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Jets: the final margin was Avalanche by 1, without the luck Avalanche by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Avalanche4834.14−1.14
Jets4022.09−0.09

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 16:40 Holding on the Avalanche (Brett Kulak): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WPG
P2 13:18 Hooking on the Jets (Gabriel Vilardi): 2 minutes on the power play +5% COL
P2 1:53 Hooking on the Jets (Jonathan Toews): 2 minutes on the power play +6% COL
P2 0:32 Delaying game puck over glass on the Jets (Elias Salomonsson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% COL
P3 18:32 Tripping on the Avalanche (Brock Nelson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WPG
P3 16:05 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Jets (WPG): 2 minutes on the power play +3% COL
P3 12:44 Tripping on the Avalanche (Valeri Nichushkin): 2 minutes on the power play +2% WPG
P3 6:13 Interference on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WPG

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Avalanche were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:05 Mark Scheifele scored on a slap shot from 24 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% WPG –
2 P1 2:20 Jack Drury scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 18% chance +15% COL –
3 P2 1:53 Hooking on the Jets (Jonathan Toews): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% COL –
4 P2 0:32 Delaying game puck over glass on the Jets (Elias Salomonsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% COL –
5 P3 19:47 Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 22% chance +20% COL –
6 P3 16:05 Nathan MacKinnon scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 10% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Jets (WPG): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +17% COL –
7 P3 10:21 Mark Scheifele scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 6% chance +14% WPG –
8 P3 6:13 Interference on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% WPG –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Avalanche 81% · Jets 19%

Final margin
Avalanche by 1
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Avalanche by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Avalanche 74% · Jets 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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