luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 26, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Stars at Islanders, Mar 26, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Stars 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Islanders win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Islanders.

The biggest swing (P1, 15:12 left): Bo Horvat scored on a wrist shot from 29 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Islanders.

Final

Dallas Stars 1
New York Islanders 2

March 26, 2026 · UBS Arena

Luck index +42 Islanders lucky · −42 Stars

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stars win 4, Islanders win 6.

  1. 1 DAL 4 NYI 0
  2. 2 DAL 5 NYI 2
  3. 3 DAL 2 NYI 0
  4. 4 DAL 6 NYI 5
  5. 5 DAL 3 NYI 4
  6. 6 DAL 2 NYI 3
  7. 7 DAL 1 NYI 3
  8. 8 DAL 2 NYI 5
  9. 9 DAL 0 NYI 3
  10. 10 DAL 1 NYI 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.3 replays ended

Stars win 42% of them, Islanders 58%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stars by 3+14.5%
Stars by 28.9%
Stars by 119.1%
Islanders by 120.7%
Islanders by 211.4%
Islanders by 3+25.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Islanders: the final margin was Islanders by 1, without the luck Islanders by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Stars4312.83−1.83
Islanders3723.06−1.06

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:24 Slashing on the Stars (Adam Erne): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P2 11:23 Slashing on the Islanders (Casey Cizikas): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P2 6:33 Holding on the Stars (Wyatt Johnston): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P3 16:57 Holding on the Stars (Thomas Harley): 2 minutes on the power play +2% NYI
P3 10:43 Holding on the Islanders (Adam Boqvist): 2 minutes on the power play +2% DAL

When it happened

Islanders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Islanders were ahead in it, below while the Stars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:12 Bo Horvat scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% NYI –
2 P1 11:05 Mathew Barzal’s backhand shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 16% chanceMathew Barzal missed the net with a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 16% chance +4% DAL –
3 P2 11:23 Slashing on the Islanders (Casey Cizikas): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% DAL –
4 P2 11:07 Matt Duchene’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance +4% NYI –
5 P2 6:33 Holding on the Stars (Wyatt Johnston): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NYI –
6 P2 1:28 Wyatt Johnston missed the net with a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 16% chance +4% NYI –
7 P3 17:41 Calum Ritchie scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% NYI –
8 P3 2:59 Matt Duchene scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 7% chance +7% DAL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stars 47% · Islanders 53%

Final margin
Islanders by 1
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Islanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Islanders by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Stars 42% · Islanders 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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